Small Craft Advisory 414, NWS Anchorage, AK

049 
FZAK52 PAFC 072313
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-081500-
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS
THROUGH FRI. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 250 NM SW OF ATTU AT
992 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-081500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-081500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-081500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-081500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-081500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-081500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-081500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-081500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-081500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-081500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-081500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-081500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE ALOFT TODAY IS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN UP INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS UPPER LOW TOWARD THE AKPEN AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH...STEMMING FROM AN EASTERLY WAVE THAT TREKKED
FROM THE MAINLAND YESTERDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS SPRAWLS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OF THE US THROUGH THE ARCTIC COAST. BETWEEN THE TWO
DOMINATING FEATURES...EASTERLY FLOW GENERALLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST
HAS BEEN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AS THE
RIDGE HAS MIGRATED FURTHER NORTHWARD THE THERMAL LOW IS NOT NEARLY AS
PROMINENT AS DAYS PAST BUT STILL SITS OVER AND JUST NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE FORCING MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION. A PROMINENT EASTERLY
WAVE IS CROSSING THE SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS VERY
CONDUCIVE TO PERIODIC EASTERLY WAVES BRINGING ONE DAY OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOLLOWED BY A DAY OF MORE BENIGN WEATHER.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
CONSENSUS AMONG INDIVIDUAL MODELS IS GETTING BETTER REGARDING THE
INTERACTION OF UPPER AIR FEATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS THE
CURRENT GULF OF ALASKA/NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
A SERIES OF EASTERLY WAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH ITS NORTHERN EDGES
WILL FORM A NEW WEAKER CONSOLIDATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THE ALASKAN PENINSULA. MODEL CONSISTENCY BREAKS
DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...OWING MAINLY TO THE SAME PESKY NORTHCENTRAL
PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN GIVING THE MODELS FITS THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. WHILE CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS PERTAINING TO THE SURFACE LOW HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER SINCE YESTERDAY SOME SPREAD STILL EXISTS.
GENERALLY THE PICTURE BEING PORTRAYED IS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THIS WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AN EASTERLY WAVE/STRONG
INVERTED TROUGH IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO MOST OF THE MAT-SU AND
ANCHORAGE BOWL WHILE SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA.
THE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SPORADIC SHOWERS
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BULK OF THE WAVE PASSES BUT WILL LEAVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. THE OVERNIGHT HOUR WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDS BREAKING DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. FRIDAY
WILL BRING THE NEXT EASTERLY WAVE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST AREAS.
WITH A LITTLE BIT STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
DOWNSLOPING MAY PLAY A STRONGER ROLE AND KEEP THE ANCHORAGE AREA MORE
SHOWERY. THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE EASTERLY WAVES AS AN
UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH AID FROM AN EASTERLY
WAVE COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHCENTRAL. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FOR BOTH BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM RIVER
VALLEYS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA SPREADING PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...PRETTY QUIET DAY AS FOR MOST OF THE
BERING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A KAMCHATKA LOW BRINGS
RAIN TO THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. FURTHER EAST...A DECAYING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS.
WHILE UNDER AN UPPER LOW THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN WILL STAY
PRETTY DRY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THERE ARE NO MAJOR SURFACE
FEATURES TO FORCE ANY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHAPED BY A STACKED UPPER LOW/SURFACE LOW
COMBO THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME RECOVERY OF THE INTERIOR UPPER RIDGE/THERMAL
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
DISTURBANCES DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. EITHER WAY THE
PATTERN OF EASTERLY DISTURBANCES WILL BE BROKEN AFTER THE WEEKEND FOR
THE NEAR FUTURE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL JUN 12