Small Craft Advisory 336, NWS Anchorage, AK

336 
FZAK51 PAFC 071156
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080300-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 999 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 1002 MB AND
BECOME A COMPLEX LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF BY MON EVENING AND DRIFT
INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT BY TUE MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH TUE MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-080300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-080300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-080300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-080300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. NEAR WHITTIER...GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-080300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-080300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-080300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-080300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-080300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

JM

636 
FZAK51 PAFC 072314
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TUE. AN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL TRACK TO NEAR SITKINAK ISLAND 
WED AFTERNOON AT 993 MB. 

$$

PKZ120-081500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-081500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-081500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-081500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-081500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-081500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ141-081500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL SITS OVER MUCH OF THE GREATLAND
TODAY. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLANETARY WAVE...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY WAY OF THE GULF...AND THE SECOND...THE
MAIN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROPAGATING EASTWARD IN THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKAN PENINSULA. THE GULF OF ALASKA
SYSTEM HAS SPAWNED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AS WELL AS A SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD...IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WHILE MOST
AREAS AROUND WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND EASTERN KENAI MOUNTAINS
ARE RECEIVING CONSTANT RAIN...THE KENAI PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE
BOWL...AND MATANUSKA VALLEYS ARE REMAINING PRECIPITATION FREE THANKS
TO A STOUT EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE
CHUGACH/KENAI RANGES.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
MULTIPLE SURFACE CIRCULATION SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. NOT SURPRISINGLY ALL
STRUGGLE WITH THE POSITION OF THE SAME SURFACE FEATURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT/VORTICITY PATTERN IS AT LEAST
AGREED UPON BY MOST SOLUTIONS. GENERALLY THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INTO THE GULF. WITH LITTLE ACCESS TO WARM
SURFACE AIR OR STRONG JET A WEAK SURFACE FEATURE MAKES SENSE...ALSO
WHY THERE IS DISCREPANCY BETWEEN GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE
AROUND PRECIPITATION AND WIND CHANCES FOR THE COOK INLET REGION. AS
THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING A COUPLE SOLUTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA WHICH WILL ACT TO KEEP THE MOUNTAIN NORMAL FLOW
STRONGER...OR A WEAKER DISORGANIZED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BRINGING
LIGHTER MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD OVER
MOST LOCATIONS. LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL LIE OVER WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS AND THE KENAI
PENINSULA AS THE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS FAR AS
WINDS GO...TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD THE PANC/PAHO PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EASE AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO TURN UP INTO WEST
ANCHORAGE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF WHILE THE AREA REMAINS
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL KEEP MOST AREAS AROUND THE SOUTH CENTRAL DRY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE ALASKA RANGE. ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
WANE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BRISTOL BAY TOMORROW AS SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE TAKES HOLD. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT AROUND
ON TUESDAY KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF THE PAST
TWO DAYS IS DEPARTING...LEAVING A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN. A QUICKER MOVING LOW WILL RACE ACROSS
THE CHAIN ON TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OR RAIN ON THE FRONTSIDE
AND SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF AND A
DEEPER UPPER LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC REINFORCING
THE TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND. IN THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN MOST
OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF WITH
SCATTERED DAYTIME ACTIVITY OVER THE MAINLAND MOUNTAIN RANGES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 152
MARINE...STORM 120
         GALE 125 170 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL MAY 12