Small Craft Advisory 334, NWS Anchorage, AK

512 
FZAK52 PAFC 071152
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-080300-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1015 MB LOW 220 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 999 MB
150 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK LATE MON NIGHT. THE LOW THEN CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN TO 992 MB 80 NM NORTHWEST OF COLD BAY LATE TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-080300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-080300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS EAST...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-080300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. EAST OF 160W...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF 160W.  
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-080300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER EAST...SW WIND 10 KT
BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING PORT MOLLER 
EAST. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-080300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY
FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-080300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-080300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ172-080300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT BY
EVENING. FROM SEGUAM ISLAND EAST...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT BY
EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-080300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-080300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. FROM SHEMYA WEST...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-080300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT.  
$$

PKZ179-080300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING
TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. 
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH
TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. A 120KT JET DIVES
SOUTHEAST FROM THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST AND DROPS DOWN TO 40N BEFORE
TURNING BACK NORTHWARD AND HEADING INTO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS CONTROLLED ALASKA WEATHER FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF. A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PASSED OVER THE DUTCH HARBOR AREA LAST
EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE BERING SEA.
FURTHER EAST...THE JET COMING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AHEAD OF THIS STRENGTHENING LOW. A LARGE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUE ON
THE MIDDLE ISLAND RADAR...THOUGH DOWNSLOPING IS CURRENTLY KEEPING
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UP AGAINST THE
EAST SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. THE
ECMWF INITIALIZED THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR BETTER THAN THE GFS
OR NAM...THOUGH ALL MODELS HAVE SIMILAR EVOLUTIONS AS THIS LOW SLIDES
EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE MORE IMPACTFUL LOW ENTERING THE GULF...WITH THE GFS
PREFERRED INITIALLY SWITCHING TO THE ECMWF BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED INTO A COMMON SOLUTION THAT
FEATURES THE LOW IN THE GULF WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE COOK INLET
AND SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...A BARRIER JET ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST WILL INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES TOWARD
SEWARD. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS ON THE GULF TODAY AS DOWNSLOPING GENERALLY KEEPS INLAND
AREAS PROTECTED. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN EXCEPT THROUGH
THE PASSES WHERE SNOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO COOK
INLET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RAIN SHOWERS LEFT TO FREELY PASS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO COOK INLET. ANCHORAGE SHOULD EVEN SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW ANY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LEFT IN TURNAGAIN ARM TO SPREAD OVER SOUTH AND WEST
ANCHORAGE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BY MONDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF THE LOW WILL BE SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR...CREATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
WHILE THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHWEST...MOST PLACES WILL SEE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH LESS AFTERNOON
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL COME AT THE PRICE OF
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS.
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SPREAD WESTWARD TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN IN MOST PLACES...WITH SNOW CONFINED
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES INTO THE AREA AS A
BROAD BUT WEAK CIRCULATION ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM ADAK EASTWARD TODAY. AN AREA OF STEADIER
SNOW WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS EVENING
FROM THE EAST...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOWLY ERODED BY A LOW DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA TONIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURE AND RAIN TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING
TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN BY
TUESDAY...ALLOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK.
WHILE THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT...IT WILL ALSO ALLOW
MANY AREAS TO GET BACK INTO A CYCLE OF DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RAIN SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STUBBORNLY PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 152
MARINE...STORM 120
         GALE 130 138 140 170
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AD MAY 12