Small Craft Advisory 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

264 
FZAK51 PAFC 081656 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
740 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

UPDATED 121 125 129 130 132 138 140 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 975 MB LOW 90 NM EAST OF SEWARD WILL WEAKEN TO 993 MB WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN POSITION THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE TO NEAR YAKUTAT AND
DISSIPATE MON AFTERNOON. A FRONT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL APPROACH
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MON MORNING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF 
TUE MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-090300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-090300-
RESURRECTION BAY
740 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-090300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
740 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
40 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-090300-
PASSAGE CANAL
740 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-090300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
740 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT EXCEPT 12 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT EXCEPT 12 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-090300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
740 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-090300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
740 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-090300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
740 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT SOUTH OF ANCHOR POINT. NW WIND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-090300-
KACHEMAK BAY
740 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE OUTER BAY IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAND TODAY IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE SITS CURRENTLY AROUND 967 MB. WHILE THE
LOW WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IT WILL PUSH QUITE A BIT
OF WARM MOIST AIR TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA CONTRASTING WITH THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES TOWARD THE GULF COAST THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AND RAMP UP THE WINDS FOR MARINE AREAS AS WELL AS KODIAK THROUGH
WHITTIER AND THOMPSON PASS. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY FALLING ACROSS THE
KENAI PENINSULA UP THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
VORTEX IS EASILY DISTINGUISHABLE ON WATER VAPOR. BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. FURTHER OUT
WEST...A COMPACT POLAR LOW NEAR SAINT PAUL ISLAND DRAPES A FRONT
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE WITH THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL
SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD THE LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND BEFORE SLOWLY FILLING. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
ARISE WITH THE NORTHERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS AT THE SURFACE WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW
FORMING NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE
MAINLAND THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ARE PREVALENT. CURRENTLY DRY AIR REINFORCEMENT FROM THE
NORTH IS KEEPING SNOW FROM BECOMING MORE THAN A FLURRY FOR THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS EVENING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIGHTEN AND ALLOW FOR SNOW RATES
TO PICK UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU. DYNAMICS
REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING AS WELL AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION FROM THE WEST.
THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ABOVE
THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO PILE UP QUICKLY IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...BITTER COLD REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. PRECIPITATION HAS ALL PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT A
QUICK MOVING POLAR LOW WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE EASTERN
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE A BIT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...ARCTIC NORTHERLY FLOW IS QUICKLY TAPERING
OFF OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. IN ITS WAKE IS A
QUICK MOVING POLAR LOW WITH A FRONT STRETCHING FROM SAINT PAUL BACK
THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW TO THE
REGION. A LARGE NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CHAIN ON
MONDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIND AND SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THIS SYSTEM AND
MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE VARIABLE AS THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM THE PAST WEEK. THE ENTRENCHED POLAR LOW WILL
BEGIN TO GET SQUEEZED FROM THE WAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA AHEAD OF A STRONG KAMCHATKA LOW. AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND MIGRATES NORTHWARD AN UPPER
LOW WILL BE LEFT IN ITS PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND KEEPING WITH
THE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME FOR THE TIME BEING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 131 SNOW ADVISORY 101 WIND CHILL
ADVISORY 155 161
MARINE...GALE 120 121 129 132 140 150 155 165 170 172 175 STORM 130
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 140 141 150 155 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL JAN 12