Gale Warning 62, NWS Anchorage, AK

635 
FZAK52 PAFC 081238
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
MEKORYUK MON MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS MON MORNING THROUGH MON EVENING. A 985 MB LOW
WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR PORT MOLLER MON EVENING AND MOVE
ASHORE BRISTOL BAY TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-090300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-090300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-090300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-090300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-090300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-090300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

003 
FZAK52 PAFC 090040
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091500-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO
NORTON SOUND AT 1005 MB MON AFTERNOON. A 968 MB LOW 475 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK WILL MOVE TO 235 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TUE MORNING AT 975 MB.

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH MON. A 980 MB LOW WILL FORM 140 NM SOUTH OF SAND
POINT MON EVENING AND MOVE ON SHORE IN BRISTOL BAY TUE MORNING.
$$

PKZ150-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-091500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING N TOWARD MORNING. SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT.  
$$

PKZ165-091500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.

.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
$$

PKZ180-091500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. NUNIVAK ISLAND WEST...WINDS BECOMING NW 20
KT TOWARD MORNING. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH AND
EAST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. 
$$

PKZ170-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...WINDS BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 45 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 15
KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW AND FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-091500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 35 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW
BECOMING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

PKZ172-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY BERING
SIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE. 
.MON...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 15
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 28 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-091500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING
TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SOUTH AND EAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...WINDS
INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT N 20 KT WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-091500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 9
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
530 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IS THE PACIFIC LOW 300 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAND POINT APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF. WHILE IT'S 960 MB
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOT TERRIBLY DEEP...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN IT'S AIRMASS AND THE ARCTIC AIR
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE AIR MASSES IS REASONABLY STRONG AND PRODUCING WIDESPREAD GALE
FORCE WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN EAST TOWARDS THE GULF OF
AK. GUSTY WINDS COUPLED WITH SNOW ARE PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THE AKPEN AND KODIAK ISLAND. PERIPHERAL SNOW FROM THE LOW HAS
ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR. THE
SNOW IS APPRECIABLY DRY IN TEXTURE AND IS BEING EASILY BLOWN AROUND
EVEN WITH MODESTLY LIGHT WINDS. THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/DELTA WHILE
DRY...ARE EXPERIENCING CHILLY TEMPERATURES...WITH WIND CHILLS IN ZONE
THE DELTA 50 TO 65 BELOW ZERO. OVER THE BERING...THERE IS A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND SWINGING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AND CAPTURE THE SYNOPTIC
PICTURE WELL. THEY SHOW THE PACIFIC LOW MOVING UP THE GULF TONIGHT TO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT EAST TOWARDS
CAPE SUCKLING ON MONDAY. THE NAM SEEMS TO SHEAR THIS SYSTEM OUT A BIT
TOO QUICKLY ONCE IT GETS TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. AS A RESULT THE 00Z
AND 06Z RUNS DEPICT LESS QPF ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT DOES NOT SWING
THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEND TO BELIEVE THERE IS A
THREAT OF SNOW UNTIL THESE DYNAMICS CLEAR THE REGION. SO WHILE THE
NAM HAS SOME UTILITY WITH GAP WINDS INITIALLY AS THE LOW MOVES
UP...HAVE TRENDED FORECASTS MORE TOWARDS THE GFS. OUT WEST...MODELS
REASONABLY SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH THE
PRIBILOFS TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW MOVES UP TO
AROUND 250 MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS
SLOWEST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND ALSO TENDS TO CUT OFF THE SYSTEM
FROM THE MAIN UPPER-FLOW...TENDING TO KEEP THE LION'S SHARE OF ENERGY
JUST SOUTH OF THE AKPEN AND CHAIN. HAVE FAVORED THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS OF KEEPING BULK OF MOISTURE A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL IMPROVE AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS TODAY AND BECOMES A BIT MORE OFF-SHORE IN NATURE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE GULF AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SUBSTANTIALLY SQUEEZED. SNOW OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL PERSIST TODAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS SETS UP FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND UP TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.
THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE UP TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON SUNDAY...WITH
SNOWFALL HEAVIEST IN IT'S IMMEDIATE VICINITY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF IT MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE SNOW TO BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR AREAS SUCH AS CORDOVA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGER
COLD-ADVECTION WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW LATE TONIGHT WILL FILTER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND ALLOW ALL PRECIPITATION TO END AS SNOW.
SNOW INTENSITY MAY BECOME A BIT HEAVIER THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AND MATANUSKA VALLEY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ADVECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE KEPT ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A MODEST SNOWFALL
EVENT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH IN IT'S WAKE GUSTY
GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT AS SOME OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS DEFLECTED EAST.
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE SW GULF
ON MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST...
WE EXPECT THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS BEING EXPERIENCED OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO BEGIN TO EBB BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND A BIT AS THE ARCTIC AIR SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY.
FURTHER SOUTH...SNOW WILL BEGIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY AS THE CRUX OF THE MOISTURE SWINGS EAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE AKPEN
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS FINALLY BEING TO DIMINISH A BIT.
THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
ON MONDAY WITH MORE WIND AND PRECIPITATION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVES UP TOWARDS DUTCH HARBOR ON MONDAY. LOOK
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES AND SNOW...THOUGH WARM AIR WITH THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STORM
TRACK SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER FROM THE EASTERN CHAIN UP THROUGH THE SW
MAINLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO POKE UP TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. WITH ALL AREAS HAVING BEEN IN A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL
FREEZE...THE INTRODUCTION OF WARM AIR WILL CREATE PRECIPITATION TYPE
FORECAST CHALLENGES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...161 171 181
         WIND CHILL WARNING...155
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY...161
MARINE...STORM...120 130 351
         GALE...129 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 352 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 129 130 138 140 141 150 155 165
                                170 171 179 185 411 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JAM JAN 12