Small Craft Advisory 226, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SURFACE WEATHER
FEATURES THROUGH 72 HOURS. MAIN FEATURE IN THE EAST IS A DISSIPATING
LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. DOMINATE WEATHER SYSTEM IS A LOW MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OVER
COLD BAY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...CURRENT SYSTEM IN NORTHERN GULF WEAKENS
THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. LOW
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OUT OF THE PICTURE AS REGARDS TO ALASKA WEATHER. THE STORM MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SHOULD PRODUCE GALES ACROSS A WIDE PORTION
OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA...RAIN AND SNOW WITH NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ALEUTIANS. SOME
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD.

SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A MIXTURE OF
CLEAR AREAS AND OTHERS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
BERING STORM MOVES ONSHORE IN BRISTOL BAY STARTING LATE SUN EVENING.
WOULD EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
MONDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL...VARIABLE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING WEST OF
PWS. MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE REGION. FRONT MOVES OVER
KODIAK EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT SEEMS TO STALL OVER NORTHERN GULF
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL ZONE.  WARMING INLAND
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...BERING SYSTEM IS PROGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AS IT DISSIPATES BUT THEN MOVES NORTHWEST INTO BRISTOL DAY ON
WED. RAIN AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS OVER GULF REGION AND SOUTHWEST
COASTAL ZONES. STRONG EAST WINDS OVER THE GULF AND NORTHERN AK PEN
EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP MAR 12