Small Craft Advisory 217, NWS Anchorage, AK

146 
FZAK51 PAFC 221820 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1020 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

UPDATED ZONES 121 AND 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW IN THE BERING SEA
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON. A 1002 MB LOW FORMS ALONG
THIS FRONT 30 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY FRI EVENING...THEN MOVES TO 100
NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 1000 MB LATE FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-230300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-230300-
RESURRECTION BAY
1020 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-230300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10
KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-230300-
PASSAGE CANAL
1020 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-230300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-230300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-230300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-230300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FOOT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-230300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

481 
FZAK51 PAFC 222258
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON. 
A 1002 MB LOW WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF 
KODIAK ISLAND LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO 200 NM EAST 
OF KODIAK CITY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  

$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W OF CAPE CLEARE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. E OF CAPE CLEARE...SE
WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING
TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.  . 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BY
LATE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.   
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...W OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. E OF
BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO NW 
40 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
440 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

CORRECTED TYPOS AND WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY LARGE AND DIFFUSE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
WESTERN CANADA WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A STRONG JET FLOWING AROUND THE BASE SENDING
A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DISSIPATING NEAR THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS FRONT WAS
SHEARED APART AS IT MOVED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...A FEW WEAK CIRCULATIONS ARE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE OUT
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BUT VERY FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER KUSKOKWIM TO BRISTOL BAY...ACTING AS A BLANKET TO HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT THIS MORNING. FURTHER WEST...THE
INITIAL PLUME OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE IS USHERING A GALE FORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHICH WILL BE THE KEY PLAYER IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BY THE WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST IN THE EASTERN
DOMAIN WITH ALL OF THE MODELS PAINTING A VERY SIMILAR PICTURE. THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHWEST
OF KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY IS VERY SIMILAR REGARDLESS OF MODEL. THE
CHALLENGE WILL BE OUT WEST WITH THE STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS HAD DEPICTED
A STRONGER AND SLOWER TREND...UNTIL THE 12Z RUN CAME IN...WHICH HAS
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE STRENGTH FROM THE 6Z VERSION. THE NAM HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WHICH IS A BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THAT THE
SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING WELL OUTSIDE OF ITS DOMAIN. EQUALLY SURPRISING
IS THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY FROM THE GEM AND ECMWF...BUT HAVE RECENTLY
BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER LOW NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE GFS
OR NAM. AT THIS TIME WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/NAM WITH GROWING
CONFIDENCE IN A MAXIMUM STRENGTH AROUND 964 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...CIRCULATION IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE AND THE MIDDLETON
ISLAND RADAR THIS MORNING APPROACHING THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. A
FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE BRINGING
SHOWERS TO COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING CORDOVA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BAND HAS SET UP NEAR SELDOVIA BRINGING THAT
REGION STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BESIDES THE COASTAL
SHOWERS...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND
SOUTHCENTRAL.

THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY BENIGN UNTIL FLOW ALOFT TURNS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS A RESULT
WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING NORTH BY AFTERNOON. A FEW CHALLENGES TO
THE FORECAST WILL INVOLVE THE STRENGTH OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF KODIAK AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY. AS
THIS LOW TAKES SHAPE...FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BECOME EASTERLY ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND LIKELY DOWNSLOPE ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN
KENAI. THE JET SUPPORT QUICKLY MOVES TO THE EAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...SO AT THIS TIME
ONLY LOOKING LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE SHUTTING OFF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. A FEW RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WERE POSTED YESTERDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
IT LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD AND CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE BERING SEA SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INVADE THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
SPREADING SNOW INLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING TO MANY LOCATIONS. BEFORE
THE WARM AIR ALOFT HAS A CHANCE TO BE PINCHED OFF BY THE TRIPLE
POINT LOW...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. WE ARE STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL NOT
ISSUE AN ADVISORY BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING WITH EACH MODEL RUN.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT WITH THIS STORM IS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THE DELTA COAST. WILL BE CONSIDERING A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR
THAT REGION BEGINNING SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING
MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS EVENT.
SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE PENINSULA EVENTUALLY TAPERS OFF
SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF KODIAK AND MOVES TO THE EAST.

ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND BERING SEA...WILL HAVE TO PAY VERY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER OUT WEST FOR ANY INDICATIONS OF HOW THE
SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING. AN INITIAL GALE FORCE STORM IS PUSHING ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING BUT WILL BUTT UP AGAINST THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. IT WILL TAKE THE
SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORCE THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING THE STORM FORCE LOW TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN BERING. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BRING MANY
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE A
CHALLENGE FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO THE PRIBILOFS.

THURSDAY EXPECTING PRECIP TO START AS SNOW AND LIKELY BE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE PRIBILOFS. AS THE WARM AIR ALOFT ARRIVES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN FOR A PERIOD FOR AREAS INCLUDING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE TRAPPED WARM AIR ALOFT EVENTUALLY
GIVES WAY TO COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE OCCLUSION...SWITCHING THE
PRECIP BACK TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW WEAKENS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY MORNING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195. BLIZZARD WATCH 155.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...185.
         GALE WARNING...130 160 170 172 175 176 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...130 138 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAR 12