Small Craft Advisory 215, NWS Anchorage, AK

687 
FZAK52 PAFC 221005 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
203 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

UPDATED ZONE 150

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221500-
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 MB LOW 250 NM WEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 235 NM NORTHWEST OF
SHEMYA AT 988 MB WED AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN. A 985 MB LOW 425 NM
SOUTH OF SHEMYA WED EVENING RAPIDLY WILL STRENGTHEN TO 957 MB 355 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND THU EVENING THEN DRIFT TO 305 NM
WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 960 MB LATE THU NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
203 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-221500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-221500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ180-221500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-221500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-221500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING 
E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-221500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

954 
FZAK52 PAFC 221135
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-230300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 982 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 285 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA AT 971 MB THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS TO
985 MB NEAR EASTERN RUSSIA FRI MORNING AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. A 995 MB LOW MOVES TO 515 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA FRI
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 275 NM SOUTH OF ADAK AT 994 MB LATE FRI
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-230300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES DURING
THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-230300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-230300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-230300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ180-230300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-230300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-230300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-230300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-230300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
BERING SIDE...25 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-230300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-230300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO
45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 40 KT
INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-230300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO SE 45 KT BY LATE MORNING. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF
FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

263 
FZAK52 PAFC 222258
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231500-
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 961 MB LOW 330 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO
EASTERN RUSSIA FRI AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON FRI. A PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 170
NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR SAT AFTERNOON AT 995 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-231500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ180-231500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 
20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-231500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

732 
FZAK52 PAFC 231124
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-240300-
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 968 MB LOW 340 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WEAKENS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES WEST AND BECOMES A STATIONARY COMPLEX
LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. A STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY FRI
AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TO 310 NM SOUTH OF ADAK FRI EVENING
AT 998 MB...THEN MOVES TO 185 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA AT 998 MB BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC. A 973 MB LOW MOVES TO 190 NM WEST
OF ATTU SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-240300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10
KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-240300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 30 KT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ180-240300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-240300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-240300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-240300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
110 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY LARGE AND DIFFUSE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
WESTERN CANADA WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A STRONG JET FLOWING AROUND THE BASE SENDING
A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DISSIPATING NEAR THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS FRONT WAS
SHEARED APART AS IT MOVED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...A FEW WEAK CIRCULATIONS ARE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE OUT
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BUT VERY FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER KUSKOKWIM TO BRISTOL BAY...ACTING AS A BLANKET TO HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT THIS MORNING. FURTHER WEST...THE
INITIAL PLUME OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE IS USHERING A GALE FORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHICH WILL BE THE KEY PLAYER IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BY THE WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST IN THE EASTERN
DOMAIN WITH ALL OF THE MODELS PAINTING A VERY SIMILAR PICTURE. THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHWEST
OF KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY IS VERY SIMILAR REGARDLESS OF MODEL. THE
CHALLENGE WILL BE OUT WEST WITH THE STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS HAD DEPICTED
A STRONGER AND SLOWER TREND...UNTIL THE 12Z RUN CAME IN...WHICH HAS
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE STRENGTH FROM THE 6Z VERSION. THE NAM HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WHICH IS A BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THAT THE
SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING WELL OUTSIDE OF ITS DOMAIN. EQUALLY SURPRISING
IS THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY FROM THE GEM AND ECMWF...BUT HAVE RECENTLY
BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER LOW NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE GFS
OR NAM. AT THIS TIME WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/NAM WITH GROWING
CONFIDENCE IN A MAXIMUM STRENGTH AROUND 964 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...CIRCULATION IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE AND THE MIDDLETON
ISLAND RADAR THIS MORNING APPROACHING THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. A
FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE BRINGING
SHOWERS TO COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING CORDOVA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BAND HAS SET UP NEAR SELDOVIA BRINGING THAT
REGION STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BESIDES THE COASTAL
SHOWERS...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND
SOUTHCENTRAL.

THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY BENIGN UNTIL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES TURNS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
USHER IN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS A RESULT
WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING NORTH BY AFTERNOON. A FEW CHALLENGES TO THE
FORECAST WILL INVOLVE THE STRENGTH OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF KODIAK AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY. AS
THIS LOW TAKES SHAPE...FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BECOME EASTERLY ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND LIKELY DOWNSLOPE ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN
KENAI. THE JET SUPPORT QUICKLY MOVES TO THE EAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...SO AT THIS TIME
ONLY LOOKING LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE SHUTTING OFF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. A FEW RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WERE POSTED YESTERDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD AND CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE BERING SEA SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INVADE THE SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
SPREADING SNOW INLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING TO MANY LOCATIONS. BEFORE THE
WARM ALOFT HAS A CHANCE TO BE PINCHED OFF BY THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. WE ARE STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING WITH EACH MODEL RUN.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT WITH THIS STORM IS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG
THE DELTA COAST. WILL BE CONSIDERING A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THAT REGION
BEGINNING SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING
MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS EVENT. SNOW
AND MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE PENINSULA EVENTUALLY TAPERS OFF SATURDAY
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF KODIAK AND MOVES TO THE EAST.

ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND BERING SEA...WILL HAVE TO PAY VERY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER OUT WEST FOR ANY INDICATIONS OF HOW THE
SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING. AN INITIAL GALE FORCE STORM IS PUSHING ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING BUT WILL BUTT UP AGAINST THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. IT WILL TAKE THE SECOND
AND MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORCE THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY AND EVENTUALLY

SHIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING THE STORM FORCE LOW TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
OVER THE WESTERN BERING. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BRING MANY AREAS PRECIPITATION...BUT THE TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE A CHALLENGE FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO THE
PRIBILOFS.

THURSDAY EXPECTING PRECIP TO START AS SNOW AND LIKELY BE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE PRIBILOFS. AS THE WARM AIR ALOFT ARRIVES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN FOR A PERIOD FOR AREAS INCLUDING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE TRAPPED WARM AIR ALOFT EVENTUALLY
GIVES WAY TO COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE OCCLUSION...SWITCHING THE
PRECIP BACK TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW WEAKENS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY MORNING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 155 195.
MARINE...GALES: 160 165 170 172 175 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAR 12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1225 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

AKZ155-161-181-185-195-220600-

...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA PENINSULA
THURSDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SNOW AND POSSIBLE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THURSDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL
FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER WARM AIR FAR NORTHWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THIS REGION.

FREEZING RAIN WILL FIRST EFFECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD EAST TOWARD COLD BAY SHORTLY AFTER
NOON. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA IN THE
EVENING TOWARD PORT HEIDEN AND AS FAR EAST AS EGEGIK THURSDAY
EVENING.

THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL LIKELY SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STARTING
AROUND NOON...BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REACH THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BRINGING POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST AS CONDITIONS DEVELOP. ANY MINOR CHANGES
TO THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW OVERNIGHT MAY CHANGE THE AREA OF CONCERN AND
TIMING OF THIS EVENT.

AB MAR 12