Small Craft Advisory 154, NWS Anchorage, AK

760 
FZAK52 PAFC 280025
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281500-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 982 MB 200 NM
NORTH OF SHEMYA MONDAY NIGHT THEN WILL DISSIPATE 400 NM NORTH OF 
ATTU TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT THEN
DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE CENTRAL BERING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A 996 MB LOW 580 NM SOUTH OF ADAK TUE AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 970 MB 70 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES 
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-281500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-281500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-281500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-281500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT SHIFTING TO SW 50 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-281500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE
25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT
BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 50 KT W OF 
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-281500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE JET
STREAM OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN TURING NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE DEEP
MOISTURE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE GULF REGION TO KEEP MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SNOW.
THE PARENT LOW IS IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND MOVING EASTWARD. THE
AIR BEHIND THIS LOW IS QUITE COLD AND IS DROPPING THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
KICK UP...CAUSING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THERE. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
BEGIN TO GET INTO THIS COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS ROTATE
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PERSISTING ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST TONIGHT WHEN THE COLD ADVECTION MOVES IN...OR WHETHER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN BETHEL AND THE COAST WILL CUT OFF THE
SNOWFALL COMPLETELY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL AND ARE CONSISTENT IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS FROM THE 12Z RUNS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN GOOD AS
WELL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE KACHEMAK BAY AREA HAS MIXED WITH RAIN BUT
THAT IS ABOUT THE ONLY PLACE. CORDOVA WAS EXPECTED TO TURN TO OR MIX
WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT INSTEAD REMAINED SNOW THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. THIS ALLOWED HEAVY SNOW AND WIND TO COMBINE FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL. VALDEZ HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT AFTER THE UPPER WAVE PASSES TO THEIR EAST LATE THIS
EVENING.
THE STORY IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA HAS BEEN DICTATED BY THE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS OFF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS CONDUCIVE FOR A
HEAVY SNOWFALL BUT THE DOWNWARD MOTION OF THE WINDS OFF THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS KEPT THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT
OVER TOWN AND IN EAGLE RIVER. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
DURING THE EVENING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH BUT THE LIFTING WILL ALSO
DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT LEAVING ONLY MODEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
2 TO 4 INCH RANGE TONIGHT FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO GET INTO THIS COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT AS
THE WINDS ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PERSISTING ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST TONIGHT WHEN THE COLD ADVECTION MOVES IN...OR
WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN BETHEL AND THE COAST WILL CUT
OFF THE SNOWFALL COMPLETELY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL NOT SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THEIR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD
MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A
STORM FORCE FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT EXTENDS TO THE EASTERN BERING
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL PUSH THE NEXT
DEVELOPING SYSTEM NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 131 135 195.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW 145.
MARINE...GALE 120 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 176 179 180 185
         STORM 130 175
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 165 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 12