Small Craft Advisory 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

931 
FZAK52 PAFC 041608 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

UPDATED ZONES 150 155 160 165 170 171 179 180 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050300-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 MB LOW 60 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
DILLINGHAM WED NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THU
AFTERNOON. A 967 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 400 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING OT 17 FT. SNOW. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-050300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT BUILDING 
TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ165-050300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-050300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-050300-
UNALASKA BAY
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-050300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-050300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

875 
FZAK52 PAFC 041637 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

CORRECTED TYPO ZONE 150
UPDATED ZONES 150 155 160 165 170 171 179 180 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050300-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 MB LOW 60 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
DILLINGHAM WED NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THU
AFTERNOON. A 967 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 400 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. SNOW. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-050300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT BUILDING 
TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ165-050300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-050300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-050300-
UNALASKA BAY
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-050300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-050300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
705 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

292 
FZAK52 PAFC 050025
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051500-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 984 MB LOW NEAR 57N 161W WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND 
ACROSS BRISTOL BAY WED NIGHT. A 1001 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 
57N 168W WED NIGHT AND MOVE TO 56N 162W THU AFTERNOON. THIS 
LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE ALASKA PENINSULA 
THU NIGHT.  
$$

PKZ150-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-051500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-051500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-051500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.  SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-051500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 
50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE
MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-051500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-051500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1215 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...COLD UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTON BAY. A SHORT-WAVE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM BRISTOL BAY INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG 160W. ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL AHEAD OF LOW COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. SINCE IT IS BEING BLOCKED FROM MOVING EASTWARD EXPECT IT
TO BEGIN LIFTING DUE NORTH TODAY. THERE ARE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RIGHT AHEAD OF IT ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND CONDITIONS ARE
VERY QUIET THIS MORNING. A SMALL BUT POTENT LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS INTENSIFYING
ON THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH WITH OCCLUDED FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS
THE ENTIRE TIME. A MUCH WEAKER LOW IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...
PERHAPS JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE PICKED UP AND ABSORBED INTO THE
BERING SEA SYSTEM. THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH IS LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PINWHEELING AROUND EACH OTHER
AS THEY HEAD FOR THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE MAIN
IMPACT ON SOUTHCENTRAL AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEM IS A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GAP WINDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES
AMONG ALL THE MODELS. THEY MIGHT COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
SINGLE MODEL CYCLE BUT THEN ONE OR TWO SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THE NEXT
RUN. THEY ALL DEAL SIMILARLY WITH THE LOWS MOVING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC...BUT 12Z ECMWF IS NOW NOTABLY FASTER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS
LIFTING EVERYTHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
HAS GENERALLY BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL IN RECENT WEEKS IT IS THE
OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT...SO WILL STICK WITH SPEED OF THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL AFFECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND COPPER RIVER BASIN AREAS.

MODELS ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC ON TRACK OF THE BERING LOW. THE
ECMWF/UKMET NOW SHOW A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION RIGHT WHICH STRADDLES
THE ALASKA PENINSULA/KODIAK ISLAND AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEMGLB
NOW DEPICT A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF SHOWED
YESTERDAY MORNING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE NORTHERLY TRACK WHICH
IS WHAT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF WITH RECOGNITION THAT
ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
FURTHER ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES UP OUT OF
THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE GULF. PREFER THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW
BECAUSE IT CREATES THE BEST TEMPORAL CONTINUITY WITH EVOLUTIONS OF
OTHER SYSTEMS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL
BACK ITS WAY INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PEAK TONIGHT
AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS IN THE EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA WILL DIMINISH AS SNOW ARRIVES. STILL...
THERE SHOULD BE SOME WIND IN THOMPSON PASS...SO PLAN TO ISSUE A
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AT
WHICH POINT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE NEAR ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW FOR
ANCHORAGE IS THE MOST QUESTIONABLE WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES AS
YOU HEAD NORTH AND EAST OF ANCHORAGE. UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK
EVERYTHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...BUT A NEW STORM WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE ROUNDING
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH A LOW MOVING UP FROM
THE PACIFIC TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW...BUT THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH...SO SNOW
IS LIKELY NO MATTER WHERE THE LOW TRACKS. WITH SUCH A FOCUSED AND
STRONG UPPER FEATURE AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION EXPECT A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM HEADED UP FROM THE PACIFIC
ON SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE BERING SEA LOW WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SNOW AND A TEMPORARY WARM-UP
OF TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF SNOW IN THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO
MINUS 40 OR LOWER...SO WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN ADVISORY BEGINNING
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THEN...AS SNOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING THERE IS THE THREAT OF LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.
WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SO WILL
HAVE TO CONSIDER A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES AND UPPER
LOW HEADS NORTHWARD. COLD AND DRU CONDITIONS WILL THEN SETTLE BACK
IN WITH THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK REMAINING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL STRENGTHEN
AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL PROVIDE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. THE EFFECTS OF THESE WINDS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EVENTUALLY THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC IS ABSORBED AND A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT DEVELOPS.
DON'T EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS...BUT VERY BRIEF
PERIODS OF WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY. BROAD
NORTHERLY FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SETTLE BACK IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST THE JET WILL LIFT NORTHWARD RESULTING IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 179.
         GALE WARNING...130 132 150 160 155 165 170 171 172 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 129 130 138 140 141
                                        150 160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 12