Small Craft Advisory 12, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 040944 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA...UPDATED
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012

UPDATED ZONE 121 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A SERIES OF STRONG LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THEN 
MOVE INLAND OVER CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. A PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE TO 160 NM EAST OF KODIAK THU AFTERNOON AT 992 MB.
$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
1240 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
1240 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

888 
FZAK51 PAFC 041213
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 976 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE OVER
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WED AFTERNOON. A 970 MB LOW 540 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 995 MB NEAR YAKUTAT WED NIGHT THEN MOVE
INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN CANADA BY THU AFTERNOON. A 987 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BECOME A 992 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO W 15 KT TOWARDS MORNING. GUSTS
TO 75 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 30
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. FROM THE
BARREN ISLANDS EAST...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS IN
THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH
OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT TOWARDS MORNING. N
OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

146 
FZAK51 PAFC 041539 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
630 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

UPDATED ZONE 121 129 138 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 976 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE OVER
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WED AFTERNOON. A 970 MB LOW 540 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 995 MB NEAR YAKUTAT WED NIGHT THEN MOVE
INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN CANADA BY THU AFTERNOON. A 987 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BECOME A 992 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
630 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNIGN TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT TOWARDS MORNING. 
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
630 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARDS MORNING. 
GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 30
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. FROM THE
BARREN ISLANDS EAST...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS IN
THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
630 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
630 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 
SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT TOWARDS MORNING. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN 
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1215 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...COLD UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTON BAY. A SHORT-WAVE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM BRISTOL BAY INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG 160W. ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL AHEAD OF LOW COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. SINCE IT IS BEING BLOCKED FROM MOVING EASTWARD EXPECT IT
TO BEGIN LIFTING DUE NORTH TODAY. THERE ARE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RIGHT AHEAD OF IT ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND CONDITIONS ARE
VERY QUIET THIS MORNING. A SMALL BUT POTENT LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS INTENSIFYING
ON THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH WITH OCCLUDED FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS
THE ENTIRE TIME. A MUCH WEAKER LOW IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...
PERHAPS JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE PICKED UP AND ABSORBED INTO THE
BERING SEA SYSTEM. THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH IS LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PINWHEELING AROUND EACH OTHER
AS THEY HEAD FOR THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE MAIN
IMPACT ON SOUTHCENTRAL AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEM IS A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GAP WINDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES
AMONG ALL THE MODELS. THEY MIGHT COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
SINGLE MODEL CYCLE BUT THEN ONE OR TWO SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THE NEXT
RUN. THEY ALL DEAL SIMILARLY WITH THE LOWS MOVING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC...BUT 12Z ECMWF IS NOW NOTABLY FASTER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS
LIFTING EVERYTHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
HAS GENERALLY BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL IN RECENT WEEKS IT IS THE
OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT...SO WILL STICK WITH SPEED OF THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL AFFECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND COPPER RIVER BASIN AREAS.

MODELS ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC ON TRACK OF THE BERING LOW. THE
ECMWF/UKMET NOW SHOW A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION RIGHT WHICH STRADDLES
THE ALASKA PENINSULA/KODIAK ISLAND AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEMGLB
NOW DEPICT A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF SHOWED
YESTERDAY MORNING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE NORTHERLY TRACK WHICH
IS WHAT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF WITH RECOGNITION THAT
ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
FURTHER ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES UP OUT OF
THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE GULF. PREFER THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW
BECAUSE IT CREATES THE BEST TEMPORAL CONTINUITY WITH EVOLUTIONS OF
OTHER SYSTEMS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL
BACK ITS WAY INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PEAK TONIGHT
AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS IN THE EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA WILL DIMINISH AS SNOW ARRIVES. STILL...
THERE SHOULD BE SOME WIND IN THOMPSON PASS...SO PLAN TO ISSUE A
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AT
WHICH POINT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE NEAR ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW FOR
ANCHORAGE IS THE MOST QUESTIONABLE WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES AS
YOU HEAD NORTH AND EAST OF ANCHORAGE. UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK
EVERYTHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...BUT A NEW STORM WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE ROUNDING
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH A LOW MOVING UP FROM
THE PACIFIC TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW...BUT THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH...SO SNOW
IS LIKELY NO MATTER WHERE THE LOW TRACKS. WITH SUCH A FOCUSED AND
STRONG UPPER FEATURE AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION EXPECT A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM HEADED UP FROM THE PACIFIC
ON SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE BERING SEA LOW WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SNOW AND A TEMPORARY WARM-UP
OF TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF SNOW IN THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO
MINUS 40 OR LOWER...SO WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN ADVISORY BEGINNING
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THEN...AS SNOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING THERE IS THE THREAT OF LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.
WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SO WILL
HAVE TO CONSIDER A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES AND UPPER
LOW HEADS NORTHWARD. COLD AND DRU CONDITIONS WILL THEN SETTLE BACK
IN WITH THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK REMAINING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL STRENGTHEN
AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL PROVIDE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. THE EFFECTS OF THESE WINDS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EVENTUALLY THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC IS ABSORBED AND A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT DEVELOPS.
DON'T EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS...BUT VERY BRIEF
PERIODS OF WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY. BROAD
NORTHERLY FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SETTLE BACK IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST THE JET WILL LIFT NORTHWARD RESULTING IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 179.
         GALE WARNING...130 132 150 160 155 165 170 171 172 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 129 130 138 140 141
                                        150 160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 12