Small Craft Advisory 104, NWS Anchorage, AK

275 
FZAK51 PAFC 070023
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071500-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN WED. A WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY
THROUGH WED. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF
SITKINAK AT 964 MB WED AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-071500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-071500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT...HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-071500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO E 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-071500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO E 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-071500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. EXCEPT E WIND 25 KT EAST OF THE BARREN
ISLAND IN THE EVENING. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 8 FT WEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 9 FT WEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-071500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-071500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ140-071500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE WIND 15 KT NORTH OF KALGIN
ISLAND. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT NE WIND 20 KT NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT N 25 KT NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.  
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ141-071500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT GUSTING 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT GUSTING 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 5 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...IN THE GULF THE LOW NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST AND MODELS ALL SHOW THIS.
HOWEVER THE NEXT LOW IS A MUCH STRONGER ONE THAT HAS THE MODELS
SHOWING GREAT VARIANCE IN THE PRESSURE AND POSTING OF IT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AFTER CONTINUING BEYOND THAT. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES
THIS LOW IN THE THE BERING SEA LOOKS TO BE THE MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH PARKS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH.
THE MODELS ALSO STRUGGLE WITH A LOW COMPLEX IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS IS A WEAK SYSTEM
THAT WILL NOT HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A WARM CORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE YUKON AND EASTERN ALASKA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS SOUTHEAST
AND OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CREATING A STRONG DUE SOUTH FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN ALASKA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEAR
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD.
AT THE SURFACE THE PATTERN IS A BIT MORE COMPLEX AS THE LOW NEAR THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS MOVES NORTHWARD AND A WEAK LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS IN
THE WESTERN BERING SEA.
THE LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST. HOWEVER IT IS HELPING TO PUSH PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST IN THE STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER IT.
THE NEXT LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH CAN BE SEEN
NEAR 40N 140W ON SATELLITE. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST AS IT HAS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO ASSIST IT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL SEE MILD
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR
MASS. A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWERS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THE WARM CORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ALCAN AREA WILL STRENGTHEN
AND COVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE WITH PEAK UPPER
LEVEL WARMING COMING TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL IMPACT KODIAK
ISLAND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE EXPECTED PATTERN VERIFY
KODIAK WILL SEE VERY STRONG EAST WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A FLOODING CONCERN FOR KODIAK CITY AND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND AS THE GROUND IS FROZEN DEEP AND THERE IS
A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK WHICH WILL CAUSE RAINFALL TO RUN OFF VERY
QUICKLY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AREAS IN THE INLAND PART OF THE STATE
WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR CLEAR SKIES AS THE WARMTH ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RADIATIVE COOLING THAT WILL OCCUR.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...STARTING WEDNESDAY THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
START TO COOL DOWN AGAIN AS THE NEXT LOW PUSHES THE WARM RIDGE EAST
AND NORTHEASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE FLOW FOR THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH
WITH A STEADY STREAM OF LOWS MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH COASTAL AREAS
SEEING WAVES OF PRECIPITATION AND INLAND AREAS STAYING MOSTLY DRY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 150 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 12