Brisk Wind Advisory 28, NWS Anchorage, AK

071 
FZAK52 PAFC 070003
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-071500-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 985 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
AND WEAKEN. A 998 MB 55 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 125 NM
NORTHWEST OF ADAK TUE EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
WILL MOVE TO 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT AT 964 MB WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-071500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-071500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-071500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT.  
$$

PKZ165-071500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-071500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
$$

PKZ170-071500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
EVENING. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-071500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
EVENING. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-071500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND...WINDS BECOMING S 20
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT BERING
SIDE AND W 25 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 35 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-071500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-071500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-071500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT.  
$$

PKZ179-071500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON FEB 6 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT.  
$$

252 
FZAK52 PAFC 071158
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-080300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 999 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 30 NM WEST OF ADAK TUE
AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 150 
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT AT 969 MB WED EVENING. 

$$

PKZ150-080300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-080300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-080300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-080300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-080300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-080300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-080300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-080300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NW E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT 
INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-080300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-080300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-080300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-080300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 35 KT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 5 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...IN THE GULF THE LOW NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST AND MODELS ALL SHOW THIS.
HOWEVER THE NEXT LOW IS A MUCH STRONGER ONE THAT HAS THE MODELS
SHOWING GREAT VARIANCE IN THE PRESSURE AND POSTING OF IT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AFTER CONTINUING BEYOND THAT. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES
THIS LOW IN THE THE BERING SEA LOOKS TO BE THE MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH PARKS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH.
THE MODELS ALSO STRUGGLE WITH A LOW COMPLEX IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS IS A WEAK SYSTEM
THAT WILL NOT HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A WARM CORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE YUKON AND EASTERN ALASKA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS SOUTHEAST
AND OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CREATING A STRONG DUE SOUTH FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN ALASKA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEAR
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD.
AT THE SURFACE THE PATTERN IS A BIT MORE COMPLEX AS THE LOW NEAR THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS MOVES NORTHWARD AND A WEAK LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS IN
THE WESTERN BERING SEA.
THE LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST. HOWEVER IT IS HELPING TO PUSH PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST IN THE STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER IT.
THE NEXT LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH CAN BE SEEN
NEAR 40N 140W ON SATELLITE. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST AS IT HAS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO ASSIST IT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL SEE MILD
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR
MASS. A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWERS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THE WARM CORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ALCAN AREA WILL STRENGTHEN
AND COVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE WITH PEAK UPPER
LEVEL WARMING COMING TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL IMPACT KODIAK
ISLAND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE EXPECTED PATTERN VERIFY
KODIAK WILL SEE VERY STRONG EAST WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A FLOODING CONCERN FOR KODIAK CITY AND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND AS THE GROUND IS FROZEN DEEP AND THERE IS
A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK WHICH WILL CAUSE RAINFALL TO RUN OFF VERY
QUICKLY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AREAS IN THE INLAND PART OF THE STATE
WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR CLEAR SKIES AS THE WARMTH ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RADIATIVE COOLING THAT WILL OCCUR.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...STARTING WEDNESDAY THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
START TO COOL DOWN AGAIN AS THE NEXT LOW PUSHES THE WARM RIDGE EAST
AND NORTHEASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE FLOW FOR THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH
WITH A STEADY STREAM OF LOWS MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH COASTAL AREAS
SEEING WAVES OF PRECIPITATION AND INLAND AREAS STAYING MOSTLY DRY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 150 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 12