Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 96, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THERE ARE SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEMS MAY AFFECT LOCAL
WEATHER. WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE NAM OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WHICH KEEPS THE MAIN LOW SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS
EVENING. THE GFS IS PREFERRED IN THE WEST ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE LIES ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA, THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND THE TANANA VALLEY.
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

A SURFACE LOW SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND A WEAK RIDGE
EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING.

THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND BRISTOL BAY WHILE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE BERING SEA.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING, THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA SATURDAY THEN CURVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE KENAI PENINSULA
TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE EAST TO
LIE ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA
SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THEN WILL BE CAPTURES BY
THE UPPER LOW AND MOVED INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY. A WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SUNDAY.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AROUND KODIAK ISLAND AND THE LOWER COOK INLET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS COLD DRY AIR IS ADVECTED FROM THE NORTH.

.THE BERING SEA...SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FLOW ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL BECOME
ZONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SNOW OVER THE BERING WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 155 160 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM MAR 12