Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 119, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING THIS
MORNING...WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS REACHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING COVERS MOST OF THE MAINLAND OF ALASKA. THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE IS A 990 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING...WHILE THERE IS MORE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOT SHOWING UP UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT OR SO. THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AS A LOW MOVES EASTWARD
TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE GFS AND NAM WERE GENERALLY USED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE LONGER
TERM...HPC WAS USED ALONG WITH SOME ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
MAKING IT PAST THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING IF NOT ALL DAY.
LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH...BUT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AS FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA...SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...BUT THE WESTERN SIDE WILL REMAIN DRIER. AS
THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES JUST A BIT SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND...SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BUT PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW ARE STILL EXPECTED.

SOUTHWEST/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE ABATED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
COAST...WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA VISIBILITIES HAVE ALSO IMPROVED AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY
WEAKENING. WE HAVE CANCELLED BOTH THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING THIS WEEKEND...A FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIANS AGAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE LONG TERM DEPENDS WHICH MODEL CURRENTLY HAS A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF
THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...132 150 155 172 175 176 351 352 411
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...130 138 150 155 165 170 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29/CC MAR 12