Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 82, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2012

UPDATED WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND MOVES INTO WESTERN PWS THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. THE PRIMARY LOW THAT HAS BEEN
OVER BRISTOL BAY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTON SOUND.
THE MAIN FORECAST FEATURE IS A DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH WED AND THEN DISSIPATE RAPIDLY ON THU AS IT MOVES
TOWARD ST MATTHEW ISLAND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA FRONT MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT. EXPECTING
CONTINUE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN MANY SOUTHCENTRAL ZONES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING LOW
SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WOULD EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING AREA...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC STORM
MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING. EXPECT STRONG
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS FROM AK PEN THROUGH CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
LOOKS AS IF MOST PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.  MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER ON TUE.

SOUTHWEST...DECREASING SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME AREAS
OF FOG TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. LOOKS AS FRONT WITH ALEUTIAN SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE TUE AFTERNOON.  WOULD EXPECT SNOW
AND POSSIBLY RAIN IN BRISTOL BAY WITH THIS FRONT.

SOUTHCENTRAL...DECREASING SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME PARTIAL
SUN ON TUE WITH NEXT FRONT MOVING OVER KODIAK TUE AFTERNOON AND OVER
KENAI PENINSULA BEGINNING TUE EVENING.  PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW WITH SOME RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG EASTERN GULF COAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...SEVERAL WEAK LOWS MOVE INTO THE GULF ON THU
THROUGH SAT...THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS PWS AND EAST. MAIN
FEATURE IS A LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH SAT. A STRONG WEATHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRI MORNING AND INTO THE
EASTERN BERING FRI AFTERNOON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZARD WARNING FOR T-PASS EXPIRES AT 6 PM THIS EVENING.
         BLIZZARD WATCH 195
MARINE...STORMS 172
         GALES 120 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 175 179 180 171
               351 352 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP FEB 12