Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 170, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT FRI MAY 4 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS WITH THE
LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE LOW MEANDERING AROUND
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE FAVORED ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 04/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE GFS WAS FAVORED FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OUT THAT
FAR.

.UPPER LEVELS AND SURFACE ANALYSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS NOW SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND DIVING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN MAINLAND THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR UNALASKA THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS
ANOTHER WEAK LOW NEAR KODIAK CITY. SNOW IS ONCE AGAIN BEING REPORTED
AT SEVERAL SITES ACROSS THE AREA...FROM SAINT PAUL TO ILIAMNA TO
GULKANA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHWEST...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE LOWER 30S. THIS SHOWERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE AREA AND
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERALL. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL RECOVER SOME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...INTO THE 40S
BY SATURDAY.

SOUTH CENTRAL...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO SPIN AND MEANDER AROUND THE
GULF...CONTINUING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF THE COMPLEX SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI...ANCHORAGE
BOWL...AND MAT-SU VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER
THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BRING CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO
NEXT WEEK. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY KUSKOKWIM RIVER AT SLEETMUTE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179 180 412 413 414
         GALE 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.