Brisk Wind Advisory 87, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

May 5, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

May 5, 2012, 7:00 PM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

208 
FZAK52 PAFC 051147
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060300-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1005 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF UNALASKA WILL MOVE TO 470 NM
SOUTHEAST OF UNALASKA SUN AFTERNOON AT 999 MB THEN TO 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

$$

PKZ150-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-060300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-060300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-060300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this brisk wind advisory went out at May 4, 5:00 PM AKDT, 11 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT FRI MAY 4 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAJOR FEATURE OVER ALASKA TODAY IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE BERING SEA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BRINGS SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS
DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE CHAIN. THE SURFACE PATTERN
AT THE PRESENT IS QUITE BENIGN WITH A COUPLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS IN THE GULF...ONE IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND ANOTHER WEAKER
CENTER NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT LIES JUST
NORTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WRAPS WESTWARD NEARLY THE LENGTH
OF THE CHAIN ITSELF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN POSITION BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCE COME WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS LATCH
ONTO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AT THE END OF THE AKPEN BUT THE ECMWF IS
AN OUTLIER WELL TO THE WEST AND STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER AND MORE TO THE WEST
WITH EACH CONSECUTIVE RUN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEASONABLE SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD
AIR ALOFT AND A WEAK PASSING UPPER TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE KENAI AS WELL AS THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THE SAME
HOLDS TRUE FOR THE TALKEETNAS AND ALASKA RANGE. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
ALOFT AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS MAKE HAIL A POSSIBILITY WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER SHOWERS. EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO FALL APART LATER THIS
EVENING BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND A FEW COULD LAST
INTO THE NIGHT...MOSTLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MIXING WITH SNOW DURING
THE EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY REMAINS WITH MUCH OF THE SAME.
WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE COMING IN LATE AFTERNOON
SHOULD SPARK MORE SHOWERS OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
SPAWNING A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BERING SEA
UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR. RAIN COULD MIX IN THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. THE
BERING SEA UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
KEEPING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TODAY
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
TONIGHT BETWEEN DUTCH HARBOR AND THE END OF THE ALASKAN PENINSULA THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASING BRINGING WIDESPREAD
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF GALES IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS LIKELY SATURDAY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE FRONT/SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE SHAPED BY THE UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SWINGING FROM THE BERING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHERE
IT WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING
WILL CONTINUE AND SEND ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE BERING INTO THE GULF
KEEPING COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND AND AN
ACTIVE PRECIPITATION REGIME OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 152
MARINE...GALE 120 170 172 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 165 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL MAY 12

Brisk Wind Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every brisk wind advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.