Gale Warning 629, NWS Anchorage, AK

452 
FZAK62 PAFC 121132
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-130300-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR 50N 165W WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF AK
ON SAT.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SAT AND PERSIST INTO SUN.

$$

PKZ411-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT WEST OF 175W
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT . 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

229 
FZAK62 PAFC 122342
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-131500-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A DEVELOPING 976 MB LOW NEAR 50N 163W WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF AK ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL BUILD INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SAT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUN.
$$

PKZ411-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

219 
FZAK62 PAFC 131135
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-140300-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA COUPLED WITH SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF AK WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRISK
NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH MON.

$$

PKZ411-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 
TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT W OF 175W. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT W OF 176W IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
535 AM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A DRY UPPER-LVL TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN OVERNIGHT
AND IS NOW EJECTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH
COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR BLEEDING SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR HAVE
PRODUCED SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OUT OF THE MATANUSKA VALLEY DOWN
THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS SLIPPING
SOUTH OF THE AK RANGE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY WITH A FEW CLOUDS BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BUT RETAINS ENOUGH INTEGRITY AND
INFLUENCE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK. AN
EAST TO WEST ORIENTED FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF IS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...BUT IS BRUSHING KODIAK ISLAND
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. FURTHER WEST...BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SUBSTANTIALLY
SQUEEZED AND IS YIELDING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA/BRISTOL BAY AS WELL AS EASTERLY GALES OVER THE BERING. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 300 MILES SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI HAS REACHED PEAK
INTENSITY AROUND 970 MB AND IS FILLING AS IT MOVES EAST. AN ELONGATED
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM IT SUPPORTS RAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CHAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE AN ACCEPTABLE HANDLE ON THE MAIN FEATURES. IN THE
EAST...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEPICTED FORMING AROUND 250 MILES
SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY FRI MORNING AND MOVING TO AROUND 120 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY SAT MORNING. THIS LOW THEN APPEARS TO BECOME
FAIRLY COMPLEX DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI AND
A VIGOROUS TROUGH SLIPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN AK REINFORCE IT. THE
GFS TENDS TO CONSOLIDATE ALL THE ENERGY INTO ONE BROAD LOW WHILE THE
ECMWF AND TO AN EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT NEW CENTERS IN THE SOUTHERN TO
EASTERN GULF. HAVE TENDED TO PUT MORE STOCK IN THE MULTIPLE CENTER
SOLUTIONS BECAUSE AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET BEGINS TO POKE BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENTS ARE
POSSIBLE/LIKELY. FURTHER WEST...MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. CONSIDERABLE
COLD ADVECTION ALSO FILTERS DOWN THE EASTERN BERING WITH THE VIGOROUS
UPPER-LVL TROUGH...DEPICTED SIMILARLY AMONG THE MODELS. THE MORNING
FORECASTS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECWMF INTO THIS WEEKEND AND TO HPC
GUIDANCE IN DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS MID NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE
VALLEY/WHITTIER...BUT SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THIS RETREAT TO THE INLET
WATERS TODAY. AND EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN IT
SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS WORTH OF AMPLE SUNSHINE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AS THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF GETS
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED FRONT. AT THIS JUNCTURE IT APPEARS THE LION'S
SHARE SHOULD FALL AS RAIN AT SEA LEVEL WITH SOME WET SNOW ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. KODIAK ISLAND DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY
TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD SEE RAIN INTENSITY BECOME
STEADIER/HEAVIER WITH TIME.

SOUTHWEST...
FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND IN OFF-SHORE FLOW...ALBEIT MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE GULF SYSTEM MAY SPILL ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE INTO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ON SAT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE CHAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS AS THE LOW SOUTH
NIKOLSKI SLIPS EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION ALSO
FILTERS DOWN THE BERING WITH THE VIGOROUS UPPER-LVL TROUGH WHICH SETS
UP A REGIME FOR APPRECIABLE SHOWER COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDE
HOW MUCH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION LINGERS FROM THE GULF
SYSTEM WHILE COLD AIR FROM THE INTERIOR MIGRATES SOUTHEAST. SHOWERY
REGIME LOOKS DOMINANT OVER THE EASTERN BERING WHILE THE WESTERN
BERING/CHAIN LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...132 138 172 179 180 185 411 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY