Gale Warning 624, NWS Anchorage, AK

078 
FZAK62 PAFC 061143
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 6 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-070300-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 993 MB LOW NEAR 67N 172W WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE NEAR CAPE
HOPE SUN NIGHT. A 981 MB LOW NEAR 46N 178E WILL MOVE TO 46N 174W
BY SUN MORNING AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC THROUGH MON
NIGHT AT THE SAME INTENSITY. 

$$

PKZ411-070300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-070300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-070300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N TO E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-070300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING E 10 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA AND A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS BRINGING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...WITH LIGHT RAIN
PERSISTING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK. MEANWHILE...A STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING STRAIT CONTINUES TO
BRING LIGHT RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DEPICTING A
NORTH AND WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND AS A LARGE UPPER LOW DIVES WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF. RAIN WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT OVER INLAND AREAS...TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWARD.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STRONG WINDS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH. AFTER A
RELATIVELY QUIET SATURDAY...RAIN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHWEST AK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL SEE GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE NORTH PACIFIC LOW PASSES
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
PRIBILOFS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH AND
WESTWARD OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN
AROUND MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE ONCE AGAIN RETREATS EASTWARD AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY 155
         FLOOD ADVISORY 101 131 135
MARINE...STORM WARNING 175
         GALE WARNING 160 172 176 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB OCT 12