Gale Warning 623, NWS Anchorage, AK

736 
FZAK62 PAFC 051147
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-060300-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 981 MB LOW NEAR 63N 173W WILL WEAKEN TO 1005 MB NEAR 66N 170W SAT
NIGHT. A 984 MB LOW NEAR 48N 179W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 976 MB NEAR 
46N 174W EARLY SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.TODAY...N TO W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

530 
FZAK62 PAFC 052337
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-061500-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 987 MB LOW NEAR 64N 174W WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA
BY SAT AFTERNOON. A 970 MB LOW NEAR 46N 167E WILL WEAKEN TO 982 MB
NEAR 49N 178W SAT MORNING AND DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC AT SAME
INTENSITY ON SUNDAY.
$$

PKZ411-061500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. NORTH OF 56N...N WIND 20 KT.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. NORTH OF 56N...NE WIND
20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-061500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
$$

PKZ413-061500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
$$

PKZ414-061500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU OCT 4 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF
CONTINUES TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL. FURTHER SOUTH...RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
SPANS ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THIS IS KEEPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH SCATTERED RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...NORTH TO WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING. AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS BRINGING LOW
AND MID LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS AGREEMENT IS GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM WERE USED TO ADJUST THE CURRENT PACKAGE. FOR MID AND
LONG RANGE FORECASTS A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING FURTHER NORTH. MODELS SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
SLIGHTLY DIVERGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THEY AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE BERING. ON SATURDAY...A NEW CENTER FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE AND MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FORMING A NEW LOW
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.  THE NAM IS CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER
WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. THROUGH TODAY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS
UP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE TURNAGAIN
ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE LOWER HILLSIDE AND ANCHORAGE AREAS. LATER THIS MORNING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BRING MORE RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF AND ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. WITH THE BLOCKING RIDGE
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...THE BERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SEND WAVES OF
ENERGY THAT WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WEDGED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE BERING
LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE COAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
BERING LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
WITH THE EXPANSIVE LOW OVER THE BERING STRONG WINDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DIMINISH
THE WET PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL START
ITS SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER
LOW THAT THE MODELS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN...WILL BEGIN A NORTHWARD TRACK. THIS WILL BE A RESPECTABLE
SYSTEM WITH STRONG WINDS AND RAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...120 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

KH OCT 12