Gale Warning 278, NWS Anchorage, AK

229 
FZAK52 PAFC 131130
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-140300-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 MB LOW 180 NM NORTH OF ATKA WILL BECOME A 980 MB LOW 240 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAND POINT TUE NIGHT AND MOVE TO 60 NM NORTHEAST OF
KODIAK CITY THU MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING. 

$$

PKZ150-140300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR 
THE COAST. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-140300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. FROM THE 
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR 
THE COAST. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-140300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-140300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO
7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-140300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT.  
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-140300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF
UNALASKA. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF UNALASKA. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-140300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-140300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 36 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY
BERING SIDE. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-140300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 21 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-140300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-140300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ179-140300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PREFERRED
THE NAM IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS FOR DETAIL. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. PRIMARY CENTER THIS MORNING IS A 992 MB JUST SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND. THIS CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX AND THE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THAT
ARE CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS OF THE CHUGACH AND
ALASKA RANGES WILL FINALLY ABATE. THIS INCLUDES AREAS SUCH AS
THOMPSON PASS...RESURRECTION BAY...AND KAMISHAK BAY WHICH ARE
PRESENTLY GUSTING 30 TO 45 MPH. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ARE COMBINING WITH SOME VERY COLD MORNING LOWS TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE LATER TODAY BUT THEN REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IN GULF REINTENSIFIES LATE TONIGHT WITH ASSISTANCE FROM
A DEVELOPING LOW ALOFT. WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAY HELP TO TEMPER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

THE 964 MB LOW NEAR SHEMYA IS CURRENTLY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY BUT
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MEANDERS INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING
BY LATE THIS EVENING. LOW SHOULD STILL HAVE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
ABOUT 976 MB AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOFS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING BUT THEN RAPIDLY FILL TO 983 MB AS IT CROSSES OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER
THIS MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BOTH TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND
SHIFT SOUTHWARD. BY TUESDAY MORNING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SAINT
GEORGE TO SAND POINT. BY TUESDAY EVENING...FRONTAL DYNAMICS WILL HAVE
BROKEN DOWN AND ALL THAT WILL REMAIN WILL BE A RESIDUAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

A NARROW BAND OF STORM FORCE EASTERLIES PRECEDES THE FRONTAL ZONE
THIS MORNING...BUT A MUCH BROADER BAND OF STORM FORCE WESTERLIES IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN
BY LATE MORNING. BY LATE AFTERNOON...WRAP AROUND COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH RAPID HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE FAST MOVING LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY GENERATE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY.

THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA...BUT PORTIONS OF THE
CHAIN COULD NEVERTHELESS SEE PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

.UPPER LEVELS AND LONG TERM FORECAST...

LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
AND THE GULF INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. CLOSED UPPER CENTER TO THE
WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DISSIPATES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING WHILE A NEW CLOSED CENTER FORMS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA
BREAKS DOWN TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR CENTER SHEMYA PRESSES
EASTWARD.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE TRANSFORMED. CLOSED
CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL DOMINATE THE MAP WHILE NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WHOLE OF THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS
PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO CONTINUED COLD WEATHER FOR BOTH SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. MILD SHOWERY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195. HIGH WIND WARNING 191.
MARINE...GALE...130 170 179 413 414
         STORM...172 411 412
         HURRICANE FORCE...175 176
         HEAVY SPRAY...121 129 130 132 138 140 150 165 170
                       411 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB MAR 12