Gale Warning 279, NWS Anchorage, AK

591 
FZAK52 PAFC 132340
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141500-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 981 MB LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL INTENSIFY TO 976 MB 120 NM SOUTH
OF KODIAK WED AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TO 981 MB AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR
ILIAMNA THU AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE 981 MB LOW
WILL EXTEND WEST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-141500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-141500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...GUSTING TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-141500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-141500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-141500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-141500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY E OF UNALASKA ISLAND. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF UNALASKA
ISLAND. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-141500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-141500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY
BERING SIDE. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY BERING
SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-141500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-141500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-141500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-141500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012

ADDED MARINE WARNINGS

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN ALOFT TODAY IS IN THE PROCESS FROM TRANSITIONING FROM A
MERIDONAL ONE TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. A MATURE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE ROTATES IN THE WESTERN BERING EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
BRINGING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW SITS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SITS
BETWEEN THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. WEAK TROUGHING LIES OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE. SAID TROUGHING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
CLOUDS FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY OVER THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE FAR
EAST/CENTRAL INTERIOR...BUT MOST OF THE STATE RESIDES UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WHICH ALLOWED FOR SOME RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES FOR A
MID-MARCH MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM. SMALL DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ARE VISIBLE...MOSTLY WITH
SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE FASTER MOVING
WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS IN THE WIND FIELDS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT BEING WHETHER OR NOT THE ANCHORAGE BOWL GETS
DOWNSLOPED AS A WAVE IN THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. THE NAM KEEPS THE
STRONGEST CORE OF THE WINDS AT OR BELOW MOUNTAIN LEVEL WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS THE MAIN CORE WELL ABOVE. EITHER WAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. NAM SEEMS TO CURRENTLY BE HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
PREVAIL AS NO BIG PATTERN OR AIR MASS CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
SHORT TERM. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES DOWN FROM THE INTERIOR
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR
OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT SNOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW EXIST ON THE
EASTERN KENAI MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU AS A MORE CONSOLIDATED TROUGH WORKS
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE FILLED WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES SPINNING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AN SLIGHTLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING PROMPTING A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE FRONT TO THE WEST IN THE BERING SEA WILL BE
SHUNTED AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE INTERIOR. THIS
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY WHILE TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY AREAS WILL ESCAPE THE WIND BUT NOT THE COLD OR
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW KEEPS SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL STICK AROUND OVER BRISTOL
BAY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW HAS ALREADY
STARTED TO BECOME ELONGATED BY THE FASTER FLOW TO THE SOUTH. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL KEEP IN GENERALLY THE SAME PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW WILL LINGER OVER THE PRIBILOFS THIS EVENING
BECOMING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE REMNANT OF THE TROUGH/FRONT SINK SOUTHWARD
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE PATTERN INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RATHER LIKE AN OMEGA BLOCK
THOUGH ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE JET. THE PATTERN WILL STAY VERY
STABLE...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
GUIDANCE HINTING AT A CHANGE TOWARD THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE RUN.
THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY WORKING TOWARD BRISTOL BAY WILL STICK AROUND
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EVENTUALLY GETTING PUSHED
INTO THE GULF. THE DRY/COOLER CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE LOOK TO
CONTINUE TILL WE GET A WHOLESALE PATTERN CHANGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195
         HIGH WIND WARNING 191
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 150 155 165 170 179 411 412 413 414
         GALE 170 171 185
         STORM 172 175 176 411 412
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL MAR 12