Gale Warning 236, NWS Anchorage, AK

719 
FZAK62 PAFC 101209
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-110300-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 50N 180 WILL DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW WILL MOVE TO 54N 172E SUN NIGHT AT 968 MB. 

$$

PKZ411-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

064 
FZAK62 PAFC 110025
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-111500-
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 51N 178W WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 49N 165E AT 971 MB SUN AFTERNOON...MOVE TO
54N 172E AT 967 MB LATE SUN NIGHT...THEN TRACK TO TO NEAR 55N 178W AT
977 MB MON AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ411-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
135 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH
SEVERAL WEAKENING LOWS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. THE REMNANTS OF
WHAT USED TO BE A GALE FORCED LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE
MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND. A LOW THAT WAS CROSSING
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS TIME YESTERDAY IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROF IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE GULF LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA WHILE A WEAK LOW TRIES
TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ALL OF THE MAJOR
FEATURES...ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
TROF. THESE SHORTWAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTIONS WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THEY MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN WHILE THE WEST WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS WITH THE PURPOSE OF INCREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS MEANDERING AROUND
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. SNOW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. MEASURABLE SNOW WOULD BE FALLING OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AS IT
IS...A FEW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATSU VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES
TONIGHT.

THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW IN
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATSU VALLEY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
EASTERLY IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. UNTIL THEN...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH CONTINUED COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE OTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL IS THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
OUT OF THE NORMAL CHANNELED AREAS INCLUDING VALDEZ AND WHITTIER. THE
WAVE THAT MAY BRING ANCHORAGE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN UP
THE GRADIENT AND BRING THE CHANNELED AREAS THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT
THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE GRADIENT IS GREATEST ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE...WE WILL BE NUDGING THE WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH VALDEZ
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
FOR AVIATION PURPOSES...THE CONTINUED CHALLENGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA IS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FLURRIES AND FOG. A
VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AS COLD DRY AIR
FILTERS IN OVER THE REGION. THE COLD AIRMASS IS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO
LEAD TO SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND CHILLS FOR EARLY MARCH. WILL BE
CONSIDERING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE DELTA TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP WHILE WIND SPEEDS ONLY SLOWLY
DIMINISH. BY MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA PROVIDING PLEASANT ALBEIT COLD CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG IN LOW
LYING AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WHILE THE REST OF THE ALEUTIANS EXPERIENCE BENIGN WEATHER.
A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT BUT
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY SHEAR IT APART AS IT DIES OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THE NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK TO BE A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WILL BE STRENGTHENING THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO STORM
FORCE SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE CENTRAL BERING
BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY 155
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 150 155 165 179 412
         GALE 130 138 132 129 150 155 160 165 172 175 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB MAR 12