Gale Warning 273, NWS Anchorage, AK

158 
FZAK52 PAFC 110031
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111500-
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1005 MB LOW 85 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 470 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 971 MB SUN
AFTERNOON...MOVE TO 90 NM WEST OF SHEMYA AT 967 MB SUN NIGHT...THEN
TRACK TO 170 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK AT 977 MB MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT...GUSTING TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT...GUSTING TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS 
AND PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT...GUSTING TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-111500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ165-111500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-111500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
UNALASKA E...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-111500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 30 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 20 KT.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...BERING SIDE...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 32 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-111500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-111500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
135 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH
SEVERAL WEAKENING LOWS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. THE REMNANTS OF
WHAT USED TO BE A GALE FORCED LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE
MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND. A LOW THAT WAS CROSSING
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS TIME YESTERDAY IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROF IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE GULF LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA WHILE A WEAK LOW TRIES
TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ALL OF THE MAJOR
FEATURES...ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
TROF. THESE SHORTWAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTIONS WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THEY MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN WHILE THE WEST WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS WITH THE PURPOSE OF INCREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS MEANDERING AROUND
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. SNOW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. MEASURABLE SNOW WOULD BE FALLING OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AS IT
IS...A FEW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATSU VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES
TONIGHT.

THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW IN
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATSU VALLEY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
EASTERLY IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. UNTIL THEN...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH CONTINUED COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE OTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL IS THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
OUT OF THE NORMAL CHANNELED AREAS INCLUDING VALDEZ AND WHITTIER. THE
WAVE THAT MAY BRING ANCHORAGE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN UP
THE GRADIENT AND BRING THE CHANNELED AREAS THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT
THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE GRADIENT IS GREATEST ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE...WE WILL BE NUDGING THE WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH VALDEZ
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
FOR AVIATION PURPOSES...THE CONTINUED CHALLENGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA IS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FLURRIES AND FOG. A
VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AS COLD DRY AIR
FILTERS IN OVER THE REGION. THE COLD AIRMASS IS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO
LEAD TO SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND CHILLS FOR EARLY MARCH. WILL BE
CONSIDERING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE DELTA TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP WHILE WIND SPEEDS ONLY SLOWLY
DIMINISH. BY MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA PROVIDING PLEASANT ALBEIT COLD CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG IN LOW
LYING AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WHILE THE REST OF THE ALEUTIANS EXPERIENCE BENIGN WEATHER.
A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT BUT
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY SHEAR IT APART AS IT DIES OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THE NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK TO BE A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WILL BE STRENGTHENING THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO STORM
FORCE SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE CENTRAL BERING
BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY 155
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 150 155 165 179 412
         GALE 130 138 132 129 150 155 160 165 172 175 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB MAR 12