Freezing Rain Advisory 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

682 
WWAK42 PAFC 141401
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
501 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012


AKZ155-141515-
/X.EXP.PAFC.ZR.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-121114T1400Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
501 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF THE KUKSOKWIM DELTA.
PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN
SOUTH OF BETHEL..

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE COMING INTO FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR WEATHER
FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECASTS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE NAM EARLY
ON AND THEN TRANSITION TO THE GFS AFTER ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS INTO
THE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS MOVING EASTWARD AND BEING
FLATTENED BY AN APPROACHING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE BERING SEA LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND ENTER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND IT INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO THAT WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON THIS FALL...WITH A LOW OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALASKA.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
VIRTUALLY ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN IN COASTAL AREAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SHOWERY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINGS WILL WIND
DOWN THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF. NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL KICK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DRYING THINGS OUT AND
BRINGING A RETURN OF CLEAR SKIES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE MAINLAND WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS BY LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DRY ON
THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW.

ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA AND BERING SEA...HIGH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE BERING SEA LOW BEGINS TO
FILL AND MOVE EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. A FRONT FROM A
LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
EARLY THURSDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATER THURSDAY...AND
BREAK APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
CONSIST OF A LOW OVER THE GULF AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA. A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF
FOR QUITE A WHILE. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERN ALASKA GENERALLY DRY AND
COLD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 185 187 191.
         ICE STORM WARNING 155.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 170 172 175 176.
         GALE WARNING 120 150 155 160 165 171 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG NOV 12