Gale Warning 763, NWS Anchorage, AK

731 
FZAK51 PAFC 141248
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 996 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF SEWARD WILL MOVE TO NEAR SEWARD WED
EVENING THEN DISSIPATE. A 991 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WED
NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 325 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND BY THU AFTERNOON
AT 988 MB AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND
35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. E OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS..NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. E OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT NE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 6
FT...EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE COMING INTO FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR WEATHER
FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECASTS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE NAM EARLY
ON AND THEN TRANSITION TO THE GFS AFTER ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS INTO
THE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS MOVING EASTWARD AND BEING
FLATTENED BY AN APPROACHING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE BERING SEA LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND ENTER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND IT INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO THAT WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON THIS FALL...WITH A LOW OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALASKA.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
VIRTUALLY ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN IN COASTAL AREAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SHOWERY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINGS WILL WIND
DOWN THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF. NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL KICK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DRYING THINGS OUT AND
BRINGING A RETURN OF CLEAR SKIES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE MAINLAND WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS BY LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DRY ON
THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW.

ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA AND BERING SEA...HIGH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE BERING SEA LOW BEGINS TO
FILL AND MOVE EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. A FRONT FROM A
LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
EARLY THURSDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATER THURSDAY...AND
BREAK APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
CONSIST OF A LOW OVER THE GULF AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA. A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF
FOR QUITE A WHILE. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERN ALASKA GENERALLY DRY AND
COLD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 185 187 191.
         ICE STORM WARNING 155.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 170 172 175 176.
         GALE WARNING 120 150 155 160 165 171 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG NOV 12