Brisk Wind Advisory 108, NWS Anchorage, AK

891 
FZAK52 PAFC 290051
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-291500-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 968 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTHWEST
OF CAPE NEWENHAM AT 961 MB LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN MOVE TO 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WHILE WEAKENING TO 979 MB SAT
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING SUN MORNING. A 963 MB LOW 190 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 976 MB WHILE MOVING TO 260 NM SOUTHWEST
OF DUTCH HARBOR SAT EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE BY SUN MORNING. ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 240 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK AT 954 MB SAT
EVENING...THEN MOVE TO NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM AT 961 MB BY SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-291500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 26 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-291500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 55 KT BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
DIMINISHING TO SW 45 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-291500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT BY MORNING. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  PATCHY
FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT.  
$$

PKZ165-291500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-291500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. S OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT.  
$$

PKZ170-291500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W 30 KT FROM UNALASKA E. SEAS 7 FT
BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. FROM UNALASKA E...VARIABLE WIND
10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE...
14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-291500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-291500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 25 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS
10 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 25 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT
BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT
BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-291500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-291500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-291500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT
BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-291500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE BERING SEA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN WEST
COAST AND EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR...LEAVING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN
CONTINUES TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE FEATURE BREAKS
INTO A COMPLEX LOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS...WITH ONE LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND ANOTHER OVER BRISTOL BAY. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...CONTINUING TO BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
PRESENT ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO BRISTOL BAY. FURTHER WEST...A STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG 50N SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT BRINGING STORM FORCE
WINDS ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW TO THAT PART OF THE CHAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE WEAKENING LOW
NEAR THE AKPEN AS IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING TIMEFRAME AS THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
MOVES EASTWARD. THE 12Z EC SOLUTION TRENDED MUCH WEAKER AND SHIFTED
THE POSITION OF THE LOW FURTHER EAST. THE 18Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM
THEN DEEPENED THE LOW AND MOVED IT BACK TO THE WEST...MORE IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS EC SOLUTION. DESPITE THE DISCREPANCIES IN STRENGTH
AND POSITION AS WELL AS THE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...THERE IS A
GENERAL CONSENSUS DEPICTING AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDING
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN LOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE AKPEN AND INTO BRISTOL BAY BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NORTH GULF
COAST...KEEPING KODIAK ISLAND AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IN PERIODS OF
RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN INTENSIFYING LOW APPROACHING BRISTOL BAY
FROM THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING NORTH OF THE COOK
INLET REGION. HIGH WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT THROUGH
PORTAGE AND TURNAGAIN ARM AS WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT BUT THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT
STRONG WINDS COULD IMPACT PARTS OF THE HILLSIDE OR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AS WELL BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE AREAS
WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE MOST CERTAINTY THAT HIGH WINDS WILL
OCCUR...WHICH IS OVER WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS
POTENTIAL CHINOOK EVENT SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A POWERFUL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG CHINOOK WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE
FROM BRISTOL BAY NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH WINDS IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS ILIAMNA AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
ALASKA RANGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE
WARMTH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL
GENERALLY BE ON THE WET SIDE. THERE IS ALSO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. ALL OF
THIS PRECLUDES ANY ISSUANCE OF ANY WINTER WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...

LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIAN
ZONES WITHIN A BROADER ENVELOPE OF GALE FORCE WINDS. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND OVER THE FAR
EASTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH DURING
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WHILE THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE
EXTENDED TERM...THE GENERAL INDICATION IS THAT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN
OVER THE BERING INTO NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
AK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH...101 152 161
MARINE...GALES...120 125 130 132 138 150 155 172 175 185
         STORMS...176
         HVY FRZG SPRY...179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB/CC DEC 12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1000 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

AKZ101-121-125-281500-

...BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING FOR THE KENAI AND WESTERN CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS IN AND AROUND THE EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AREA...

THE CHUGACH NATIONAL FOREST AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER HAS ISSUED
AN AVALANCHE WARNING FOR THE KENAI AND WESTERN CHUGACH MOUNTAINS IN
AND AROUND THE EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AREA.

DANGEROUS HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE BACKCOUNTRY.
NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
HIGH WIND. PEOPLE WITHOUT EXPERT AVALANCHE SKILLS ARE URGED TO STAY
OUT OF THE BACKCOUNTRY.

THIS AVALANCHE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM AKST 12-28-2012.

THIS WARNING DOES NOT INCLUDE SKI AREAS...HIGHWAYS...OR RAILROADS
WHERE AVALANCHE REDUCTION WORK IS EXECUTED.

FOR THE FULL ADVISORY VISIT WWW.CNFAIC.ORG OR CALL 907-754-2369.