Blizzard Watch 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

334 
WWAK42 PAFC 310117
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
417 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

AKZ187-311430-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0010.120131T1600Z-120201T1000Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0022.120131T1600Z-120201T1000Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
417 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* TIMING...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME A STEADY SNOW ON  
  TUESDAY AS COLD AIR AND STRENGTHENING WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
  CENTRAL CHAIN. THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP NEAR ADAK  
  TUESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS  
  THEN LOOK TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...NORTH WIND 30 TO 40 MPH. SNOW AND BLOWING
  SNOW WILL REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT
  TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 4 INCHES. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
  PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. DRIVING WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ155-311430-
/X.EXT.PAFC.WC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-120201T2100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
417 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...40 TO 50 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* TIMING...A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OF AT LEAST 15 MPH IS 
  EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO 
  RECOVERY IN AIR TEMPERATURES. 

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

642 
WWAK42 PAFC 310446 CCA
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
743 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

AKZ187-311800-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0010.120131T1600Z-120201T1000Z/
/X.COR.PAFC.BZ.W.0022.120131T1600Z-120201T1000Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
743 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* TIMING...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME A STEADY SNOW ON  
  TUESDAY AS COLD AIR AND STRENGTHENING WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
  CENTRAL CHAIN. THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP NEAR ADAK  
  TUESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS  
  THEN LOOK TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...NORTH WIND 30 TO 40 MPH. SNOW AND BLOWING
  SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT
  TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 4 INCHES. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
  PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. DRIVING WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ155-311800-
/X.COR.PAFC.WC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-120201T2100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
743 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...40 TO 50 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* TIMING...A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OF AT LEAST 15 MPH IS 
  EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO 
  RECOVERY IN AIR TEMPERATURES. 

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A COLD CORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ANCHORED FAR NORTH NEAR BARROW. THE ZONAL JET STREAM IS
WELL SOUTH OF OUR DOMAIN FLOWING WEST TO EAST ABOUT 40N. MULTIPLE
WAVES ARE SPINNING UP ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
AND MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE INTERIOR.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE WELL REPRESENTED BY THE FORECAST MODELS.
SOME INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN HAVE COME UP ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL BE LARGELY BASED OFF OF THE 12Z ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
UNDERWAY AS CLOUDS AND WARMER AIR APPROACHES SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM
THE WEST. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL BRING
SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE COASTAL ZONES AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST ALOFT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SECTION OF
SOUTHCENTRAL INCLUDING ANCHORAGE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES OVER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP MID WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE COASTAL ZONES.
AGAIN...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PLACES LIKE KODIAK AND AROUND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. ANY RAIN COULD VERY RAPIDLY LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS
AFTER THE PROLONGED COLD SPELL WE HAVE BEEN UNDER THIS MONTH.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES HAS INVADED SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TODAY. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE LIMITED TO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WHICH COULD LAST ANOTHER FEW DAYS. THE LIGHT SNOW AND CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE REGION
WILL EXIT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS WEEK...A DEEP 955 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS WILL SEND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS HIGH FROM THE
ALASKA PENINSULA UP TO THE DELTA IF THIS LOW DEVELOPS HOW THE MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING. AS CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THIS SCENARIO...WE WILL
LIKELY BE CONSIDERING WATCHES FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES SOON.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
WARM AIR INVADING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RESUME ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN BY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEP LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A LARGE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS BACK TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY 155
MARINE...GALE 138 172 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 130 141 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JAN 12