Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Aberdeen, SD

857 
WWUS53 KABR 172216
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
516 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

SDC091-172245-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120617T2245Z/
MARSHALL SD-
516 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
MARSHALL COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 514 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
WEST OF HILLHEAD...OR 9 MILES EAST OF BRITTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HILLHEAD AROUND 530 PM CDT...
  VEBLEN AROUND 540 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A
SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4593 9723 4564 9723 4575 9768 4585 9770
      4594 9751 4594 9724
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 237DEG 25KT 4581 9754
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$
HINTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT RANGE. FOR TNT VERY STRONG
SHEAR VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND HIGH CAPES
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE. MOST HIGH AND LOW RES MODELS DO INDICATE CONVECTION
INITIATING BETWEEN 21-00Z AROUND THE JAMES VALLEY WITH THE STORMS
THEN SHIFTING OFF INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA IN THE EARLY AND MID
EVENING HOURS. SCT SINGLE CELLS SHOULD BECOME A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS AND
EVEN A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS THEN MOVE IN FOR LATE TNT AND MONDAY WITH
ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WAVE LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A PRETTY DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE EURO MODELS ARE DISPLACED A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND THUS HAVE MOST OF THEIR PCPN OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH SUITE OF NCEP MODELS THAT
ARE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THUS HAVE PRETTY HIGH POPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MORE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SITUATED OVER
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OUT WEST MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE THE COOLEST
DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE...ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING OUT
WEST PUSHES/BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT
FEATURE TO BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LLJ MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. ALREADY HAVE IN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE INTERESTING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION TO 588 OR SO BY SUNDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH...AT THE SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES SOME MAINLY NORTH AND EAST IN THE CWA.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME 90S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE BUT WE COULD SEE A LOT MORE 90S IF THE WARMER AIR PUSHES
FARTHER NORTHWARD SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TODAY...
TONIGHT...AND MONDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH INSTABILITY BUILDING UP
TODAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE. ABR AND ATY LOOK TO
BE THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED. INSERTED SOME VCTS AT
BOTH OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
436 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-180945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
436 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012 /336 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE
MAIN TREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADIC
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

SD