Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Aberdeen, SD

841 
WWUS53 KABR 060152
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
852 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

SDC029-039-051-057-109-060230-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120506T0230Z/
ROBERTS SD-HAMLIN SD-GRANT SD-DEUEL SD-CODINGTON SD-
852 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
CODINGTON...NORTHWESTERN DEUEL...CENTRAL GRANT...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
HAMLIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ROBERTS COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 838 PM CDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN THE FAR NORTHEAST 
CORNER OF WATERTOWN. THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR WAVERLY...OR 14 
MILES NORTHEAST OF WATERTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SOUTH SHORE AND STOCKHOLM AROUND 900 PM CDT...
  TWIN BROOKS AND MARVIN AROUND 915 PM CDT...
  MILBANK AROUND 920 PM CDT...
  CORONA AROUND 925 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A
SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9696 4528 9655 4480 9693 4491 9723
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 204DEG 29KT 4505 9695
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.75IN

$$
DORN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
642 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING TONIGHT...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE CWA. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM A
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10
TO 20 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT AREAS OF S/W ENERGY
ALOFT TO DEAL WITH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE ONE
UPPER WAVE LIFTING INTO COLORADO...WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY WORKING INTO WYOMING. INSTABILITY-WISE...ALL THE
INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED TONIGHT. THAT SAID...MODELS SUGGESTING
ANYWHERE FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE REMAINS AVAILABLE FOR
ELEVATED STORMS...IF ANY CAN GET GOING DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO BE 35 TO 45 KNOTS...SUGGESTING
ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO BECOME SUPER-CELLULAR WITH LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE. CAM SOLUTIONS ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND MOVING OVER THE CWA. BUT...NONE OF THEM HAVE SIMILAR
PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. SO...BASED OFF WHERE THE BEST 925HPA TO
700HPA ZONE OF ASCENT /WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT DOWN ALONG NE-SD BORDER/ WILL BE TONIGHT WHEN SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT COMES THROUGH...EXPECTING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO LINE UP BASICALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KENNEBEC TO LEOLA. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...GIVEN EXCESSIVELY HIGH
PWATS PROGGED FOR TONIGHT ALONG WITH LOW 1...3 AND 6 HOURLY FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT SOME AREAS HAVE PICKED UP MORE
THAN 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST TWO MORNINGS.

ONCE THE CONVECTION CLEARS THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CWA...SIGNALING A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
CAA AND DRY AIR ADVECTION. NW SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. A FEW COLD AIR INSTABILITY SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WORKING SEWD OUT OF NORTH
DAKOTA. SO...LEFT IN SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS NC SODAK MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A LARGE
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NORTHERN MN INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. DEEP LAYER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER OUR
REGION BEHIND THIS UPPER LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. WE SHOULD HAVE A LOT
OF CAA CU ON TUESDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD SOME
SURFACE HEATING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE
LATE EVENING AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS IN. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...IT WILL BE A COOL ONE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. RIGHT NOW...KEPT LOWS GENERALLY FROM AROUND 40 TO 45.
THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
THEN THE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN. THURSDAY WILL BE
WARM AND WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. ALSO...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S. FRIDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE BREEZY/WINDY
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY UP THE JAMES AND BIG SIOUX
VALLEYS. A SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR KATY. ALSO THE
CURRENT MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE BEFORE IMPROVING AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE
MOST PART VSBYS SHOULD BE IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE BUT WILL BE IFR
DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-MARSHALL-
     ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
442 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-060945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
442 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012 /342 AM MDT SAT MAY 5 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE
HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY.

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     HAIL             1 N MURDO               43.91N 100.71W
05/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       JONES              SD   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200109

RV