Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Aberdeen, SD

775 
WWUS53 KABR 060126
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
826 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

SDC025-029-057-060200-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120506T0200Z/
HAMLIN SD-CODINGTON SD-CLARK SD-
826 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
CLARK...SOUTHWESTERN CODINGTON AND WESTERN HAMLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

AT 825 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
NAPLES...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HENRY AROUND 835 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4454 9747 4454 9777 4460 9787 4463 9787
      4495 9755 4480 9720
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 206DEG 30KT 4478 9747
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$
DORN

292 
WWUS53 KABR 060154
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
854 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

SDC025-029-057-060204-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120506T0200Z/
HAMLIN SD-CODINGTON SD-CLARK SD-
854 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLARK...
SOUTHWESTERN CODINGTON AND WESTERN HAMLIN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 900
PM CDT/800 PM MDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4454 9747 4454 9777 4460 9787 4463 9787
      4495 9755 4480 9720
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 206DEG 30KT 4499 9732

$$
TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
642 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING TONIGHT...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE CWA. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM A
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10
TO 20 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT AREAS OF S/W ENERGY
ALOFT TO DEAL WITH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE ONE
UPPER WAVE LIFTING INTO COLORADO...WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY WORKING INTO WYOMING. INSTABILITY-WISE...ALL THE
INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED TONIGHT. THAT SAID...MODELS SUGGESTING
ANYWHERE FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE REMAINS AVAILABLE FOR
ELEVATED STORMS...IF ANY CAN GET GOING DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO BE 35 TO 45 KNOTS...SUGGESTING
ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO BECOME SUPER-CELLULAR WITH LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE. CAM SOLUTIONS ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND MOVING OVER THE CWA. BUT...NONE OF THEM HAVE SIMILAR
PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. SO...BASED OFF WHERE THE BEST 925HPA TO
700HPA ZONE OF ASCENT /WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT DOWN ALONG NE-SD BORDER/ WILL BE TONIGHT WHEN SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT COMES THROUGH...EXPECTING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO LINE UP BASICALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KENNEBEC TO LEOLA. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...GIVEN EXCESSIVELY HIGH
PWATS PROGGED FOR TONIGHT ALONG WITH LOW 1...3 AND 6 HOURLY FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT SOME AREAS HAVE PICKED UP MORE
THAN 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST TWO MORNINGS.

ONCE THE CONVECTION CLEARS THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CWA...SIGNALING A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
CAA AND DRY AIR ADVECTION. NW SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. A FEW COLD AIR INSTABILITY SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WORKING SEWD OUT OF NORTH
DAKOTA. SO...LEFT IN SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS NC SODAK MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A LARGE
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NORTHERN MN INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. DEEP LAYER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER OUR
REGION BEHIND THIS UPPER LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. WE SHOULD HAVE A LOT
OF CAA CU ON TUESDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD SOME
SURFACE HEATING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE
LATE EVENING AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS IN. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...IT WILL BE A COOL ONE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. RIGHT NOW...KEPT LOWS GENERALLY FROM AROUND 40 TO 45.
THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
THEN THE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN. THURSDAY WILL BE
WARM AND WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. ALSO...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S. FRIDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE BREEZY/WINDY
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY UP THE JAMES AND BIG SIOUX
VALLEYS. A SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR KATY. ALSO THE
CURRENT MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE BEFORE IMPROVING AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE
MOST PART VSBYS SHOULD BE IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE BUT WILL BE IFR
DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-MARSHALL-
     ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
442 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-060945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
442 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012 /342 AM MDT SAT MAY 5 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE
HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY.

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     HAIL             1 N MURDO               43.91N 100.71W
05/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       JONES              SD   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200109

RV