Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Aberdeen, SD

397 
WWUS53 KABR 012045
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
345 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

SDC065-069-075-085-117-012130-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-120801T2130Z/
LYMAN SD-HYDE SD-HUGHES SD-JONES SD-STANLEY SD-
345 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
STANLEY...NORTHEASTERN JONES...HUGHES...SOUTHERN HYDE AND
NORTHWESTERN LYMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT/330 PM MDT/...

AT 343 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PIERRE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS ALSO DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF HARROLD.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROSSEAU AROUND 405 PM CDT...
  CANNING AROUND 410 PM CDT...
  CEDAR CREEK REC AREA AROUND 415 PM CDT...
  JOE CREEK REC AREA AROUND 430 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 70 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4402 10040 4442 10054 4460 9932 4420 9930
      4420 9957 4416 9954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 256DEG 23KT 4427 10024
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.50IN

$$
FOWLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
101 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

.UPDATE...
THE OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED EAST/WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO WESTERN ND MAY HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RES
MODELS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

UPCOMING PATTERN APPEARS RATHER ACTIVE. CURRENTLY HAVE A REMNANT
STORM PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WITH ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM CONVECTION IDENTIFYING A SECOND WAVE. CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG A
STALLED FRONT...NOT TO MENTION AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO. FLOW
ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK...WITH H5 WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT 20 AND
40KTS RESPECTIVELY...THOUGH HIGH CAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION KICKING IN LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
FRONTS/OUTFLOWS. A COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL
NUDGE INTO THE CWA...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW
20S...REST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...WHICH
TRANSLATES INTO MOST SPOTS SEEING 90S. THAT COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
WILL DOMINATE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A 30KT LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSITING
TO LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF STORMY...BUT THEN DRIES OUT FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO MINNESOTA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...HEIGHTS WILL BE CLIMBING AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GOOD VFR IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE PREVAILING CONDITION...EXCEPT FOR IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. VICINITY SHOWER MENTION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO
THE KMBG TERMINAL THROUGH 21Z PER THE LATEST REGION RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS WORKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
THEN...SWITCHED CONVECTIVE MENTION OVER TO VICINITY THUNDER UNTIL
00Z FOR THE KMBG TERMINAL. BEYOND 00Z...THE KPIR AND KATY TAFS
BEGIN TO SEE THOSE INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER PASSING
OVER A TERMINAL...WITH LESSER PROBABILITIES FURTHER NORTH. STILL
EXPECTING STORMS TO FIRE UP OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ANCHORED MAINLY ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF WHERE EVER THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
419 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-020930-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
419 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012 /319 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...TRANSLATING SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CENTERS MAINLY
AROUND GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG
WAVE WILL PROVIDE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK DURING
THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

CONNELLY