Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Aberdeen, SD

686 
WWUS53 KABR 051349
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
849 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

SDC017-059-051359-
/O.CAN.KABR.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-120505T1415Z/
HAND SD-BUFFALO SD-
849 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN BUFFALO AND
SOUTHEASTERN HAND COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4412 9927 4425 9872 4419 9871 4419 9891
      4394 9892 4393 9893 4393 9927
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 246DEG 40KT 4414 9879

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
652 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. GOOD AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SHEAR TO WORK WITH AS WELL. SVR WATCH 246 WAS ISSUED A SHORT TIME
AGO OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO ACCOUNT
FOR POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL WITHIN THESE STORMS. AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA SO HAVE PRETTY HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. THERE
STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS
LATER TODAY...BUT WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA...FEEL
BIGGEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS FSD
CWA AND NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THOUGH INTO OUR CWA...BUT THREAT
IS NOT AS GREAT. COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
PROVIDING A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY EXITS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND NORTHWEST
WINDS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ON MONDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE LOW MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE BOUNDARY WATERS/MN-
ONTARIO BORDER AREA WILL KEEP A COOL...MAINLY DRY...NWLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO SETTLE IN LATE-DAY
TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MODERATE RETURN S-SELY FLOW
SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT QUITE THE VIGOROUS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT BY ABOUT SIX HOURS AND ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY.
CIGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. VSBYS IN RAIN AND LIGHT FOG WILL DROP TO AROUND 2SM AT
TIMES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
442 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-060945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
442 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012 /342 AM MDT SAT MAY 5 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE
HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY.

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
810 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     HAIL             KENNEBEC                43.90N  99.86W
05/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       LYMAN              SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LSR

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200104

KG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
814 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HAIL             6 SSE KENNEBEC          43.82N  99.82W
05/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       LYMAN              SD   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200105

KG