Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Aberdeen, SD

279 
WWUS53 KABR 051230
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
730 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

SDC075-051239-
/O.CAN.KABR.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120505T1245Z/
JONES SD-
730 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED OR MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4395 10019 4409 9985 4380 9969 4373 10007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1229Z 249DEG 28KT 4389 9993

$$

SDC085-051245-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120505T1245Z/
LYMAN SD-
730 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LYMAN
COUNTY UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 728 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KENNEBEC...OR 6 MILES EAST OF PRESHO...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KENNEBEC AROUND 735 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4395 10019 4409 9985 4380 9969 4373 10007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1229Z 249DEG 28KT 4389 9993
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.50IN

$$
CHURCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
652 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. GOOD AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SHEAR TO WORK WITH AS WELL. SVR WATCH 246 WAS ISSUED A SHORT TIME
AGO OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO ACCOUNT
FOR POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL WITHIN THESE STORMS. AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA SO HAVE PRETTY HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. THERE
STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS
LATER TODAY...BUT WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA...FEEL
BIGGEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS FSD
CWA AND NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THOUGH INTO OUR CWA...BUT THREAT
IS NOT AS GREAT. COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
PROVIDING A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY EXITS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND NORTHWEST
WINDS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ON MONDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE LOW MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE BOUNDARY WATERS/MN-
ONTARIO BORDER AREA WILL KEEP A COOL...MAINLY DRY...NWLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO SETTLE IN LATE-DAY
TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MODERATE RETURN S-SELY FLOW
SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT QUITE THE VIGOROUS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT BY ABOUT SIX HOURS AND ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY.
CIGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. VSBYS IN RAIN AND LIGHT FOG WILL DROP TO AROUND 2SM AT
TIMES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
442 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-060945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
442 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012 /342 AM MDT SAT MAY 5 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE
HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY.

TMT