Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
243 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

THE LATEST LAPS GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORTING INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THIS
EVENING. AS OF 2PM THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CIN OVER THE SE
PLAINS WILL BREAK THRU DAYTIME HEATING LATER AND CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD INTO THAT REGION LATER THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ALREADY BEING SCOURED OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN
NM WHERE SW FLOW IS MIXING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA.

CONVECTIVE INDUCED COLD POOL OVER THE PLAINS WILL FORCE ANOTHER
GAP WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS
A RATHER POTENT EVENT BRIEFLY IN THE ABQ METRO BTWN 02-04Z ON
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON. GUSTS UP TO 40KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

THE DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL TAKE
HOLD OF MOST OF NM WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
WINDS WITH MAX TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FAR E PLAINS WED AFTERNOON
WHERE SPC SEVERE DESK IS STILL CARRYING SEE TEXT. SCOURING OUT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO WESTERN HALF OF NM WILL
FAVOR SOME DRY STORMS OVER NORTHERN MTS AND SPC FIRE DESK ALSO
CARRYING SEE TEXT. THURSDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY
STATEWIDE AS THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT OVER THE DESERT SW SHIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF NM.

MEANWHILE...THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK 700-500MB
OPEN WAVE SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE BAJA REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND CLOSING OFF SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BTWN MODEL
RUNS IS VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF TAKES A SECOND UPPER LOW SE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THEN
EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
MORE DRY AIR TO INVADE THE WESTERN HALF OF NM OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN. THE GFS HAS THE SECONDARY UPPER WAVE SLOWING THEN DIVING
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE INITIAL WAVE...WHICH FORCES
A DEEP FETCH OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NM. HPC QPF SUGGESTS THE
LATTER SCENARIO HOWEVER SUITE OF ENSEMBLES STILL LEAVING A GOOD
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY. TOUCHED UP EXTENDED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT
KEPT THINGS IN THE LOW CHANCE ARENA FOR NOW.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REACHED AS FAR WEST AS THE JEMEZ AND SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS LAST NIGHT AND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THIS REGION. IN
THE EASTERN PLAINS...MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...AND THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT.  IT APPEARS THERE WILL ANOTHER ROUND OF
EAST WINDS INTO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT...THE
WESTWARD EXTENT A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
REINFORCED OVER THE SAN JUAN AND JEMEZ MOUNTAINS.

GFS MAY BE TENDING TO DRY OUT LOW LEVELS TOO QUICKLY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM DEW POINT WISE. THERE COULD BE ISOLD DRY
ACTIVITY IN THE SAN JUAN AND JEMEZ AS WELL AS AROUND MT TAYLOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS DRYING OUT
MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY THURSDAY...SO RH
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY RETURN TO POOR IN AREAS WHICH SAW/OR
WILL SEE INCREASES LAST NIGHT AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND WEATHER SCENARIO IS LOOKING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOCAL/BAJA CA. THE RESULTING
UPPER CIRCULATION COULD TAP MOISTURE OVER OLD MEXICO AND DRAW IT
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WE ARE WATCHING THIS CLOSELY SO
STAY TUNED. WINDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEK AND NEXT
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED WESTWARD TO THE JEMEZ AND SAN JUAN
MTS. AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AND EXPECT ISOLD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURING MTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MTS TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS, LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN
OVER THE PLAINS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  91  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  40  86  37  87 /   5   0   0   0
CUBA............................  46  89  42  89 /  10   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  41  89  43  89 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  43  86  41  86 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  47  90  44  90 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  48  86  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  47  92  43  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  47  82  45  83 /  10   5   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  83  60  86 /  20   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  55  82  57  86 /  30  20  10   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  55  80  50  82 /  20  10   5  10
RED RIVER.......................  44  74  46  75 /  20  20  10  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  42  74  43  77 /  30  30  20  20
TAOS............................  50  87  47  89 /  20   5   0   5
MORA............................  50  80  52  85 /  50  30  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  51  90  48  92 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  57  83  58  85 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  88  59  90 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  89  63  91 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  91  64  94 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  92  62  95 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  62  92  60  95 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  59  91  59  94 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  63  91  61  94 /   5   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  62  95  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  85  56  87 /  10  10   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  59  88  58  91 /   5   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  53  89  53  91 /  20  20  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  85  56  88 /  30  30  20   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  87  56  89 /  10  10   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  90  55  91 /   0   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  54  83  55  84 /  10  20  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  54  77  57  82 /  40  40  20  20
RATON...........................  53  88  54  91 /  30  30  20  20
SPRINGER........................  54  84  55  89 /  40  30  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  82  54  88 /  50  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  60  85  61  91 /  60  30  20  20
ROY.............................  56  81  58  88 /  60  30  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  61  90  63  95 /  60  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  62  91  63  97 /  60  20  20   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  95  67 100 /  60  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  62  91  64  96 /  70  30  20  10
PORTALES........................  64  93  66  97 /  70  30  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  95  66 100 /  60  20  20   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  97  66 101 /  40  20  20   0
PICACHO.........................  60  91  61  94 /  20  20  10   5
ELK.............................  60  88  60  88 /  10  20  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

GUYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

NMZ501>540-131145-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
541 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A RATON TO SANTA ROSA TO CLOVIS LINE LATE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT WILL FOCUS FURTHER EAST NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SURGES AND WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DECREASE. IN THIS SCENARIO...SLOWER STORM
MOVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

11

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
641 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     HAIL             3 NNE RATON             36.93N 104.42W
06/12/2012  M1.00 INCH       COLFAX             NM   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201226

CML

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