Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Albuquerque, NM

583 
WWUS55 KABQ 130246
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
846 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

NMC021-037-047-130330-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-120613T0330Z/
HARDING-QUAY-SAN MIGUEL-
846 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL SAN
MIGUEL...CENTRAL QUAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL HARDING COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
MDT...

AT 845 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER EXTREME EAST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...OR ABOUT 20
MILES NORTHWEST OF TUCUMCARI...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL QUAY COUNTY..
  RURAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY..
  RURAL HARDING COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 10395 3548 10351 3514 10362 3533 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 270DEG 37KT 3543 10386

$$

40

430 
WWUS55 KABQ 130310
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
910 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

NMC021-037-047-130330-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-120613T0330Z/
HARDING-QUAY-SAN MIGUEL-
910 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL SAN
MIGUEL...CENTRAL QUAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL HARDING COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
MDT...

AT 906 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL HARDING COUNTY...
OR ABOUT 19 MILES NORTH OF TUCUMCARI...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL HARDING COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 10395 3548 10351 3514 10362 3533 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 270DEG 37KT 3543 10356

$$

40
WWA_SVRWX_STA_COUNTY.WWAPROD--!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
706 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT
CONVECTION WITH A FEW SVR STORMS THROUGH 04Z WITH WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WITH IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

THE LATEST LAPS GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORTING INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THIS
EVENING. AS OF 2PM THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CIN OVER THE SE
PLAINS WILL BREAK THRU DAYTIME HEATING LATER AND CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD INTO THAT REGION LATER THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ALREADY BEING SCOURED OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN
NM WHERE SW FLOW IS MIXING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA.

CONVECTIVE INDUCED COLD POOL OVER THE PLAINS WILL FORCE ANOTHER
GAP WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS
A RATHER POTENT EVENT BRIEFLY IN THE ABQ METRO BTWN 02-04Z ON
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON. GUSTS UP TO 40KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

THE DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL TAKE
HOLD OF MOST OF NM WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
WINDS WITH MAX TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FAR E PLAINS WED AFTERNOON
WHERE SPC SEVERE DESK IS STILL CARRYING SEE TEXT. SCOURING OUT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO WESTERN HALF OF NM WILL
FAVOR SOME DRY STORMS OVER NORTHERN MTS AND SPC FIRE DESK ALSO
CARRYING SEE TEXT. THURSDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY
STATEWIDE AS THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT OVER THE DESERT SW SHIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF NM.

MEANWHILE...THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK 700-500MB
OPEN WAVE SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE BAJA REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND CLOSING OFF SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BTWN MODEL
RUNS IS VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF TAKES A SECOND UPPER LOW SE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THEN
EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
MORE DRY AIR TO INVADE THE WESTERN HALF OF NM OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN. THE GFS HAS THE SECONDARY UPPER WAVE SLOWING THEN DIVING
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE INITIAL WAVE...WHICH FORCES
A DEEP FETCH OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NM. HPC QPF SUGGESTS THE
LATTER SCENARIO HOWEVER SUITE OF ENSEMBLES STILL LEAVING A GOOD
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY. TOUCHED UP EXTENDED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT
KEPT THINGS IN THE LOW CHANCE ARENA FOR NOW.

GUYER

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REACHED AS FAR WEST AS THE JEMEZ AND SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS LAST NIGHT AND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THIS REGION. IN
THE EASTERN PLAINS...MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...AND THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT.  IT APPEARS THERE WILL ANOTHER ROUND OF
EAST WINDS INTO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT...THE
WESTWARD EXTENT A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
REINFORCED OVER THE SAN JUAN AND JEMEZ MOUNTAINS.

GFS MAY BE TENDING TO DRY OUT LOW LEVELS TOO QUICKLY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM DEW POINT WISE. THERE COULD BE ISOLD DRY
ACTIVITY IN THE SAN JUAN AND JEMEZ AS WELL AS AROUND MT TAYLOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS DRYING OUT
MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY THURSDAY...SO RH
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY RETURN TO POOR IN AREAS WHICH SAW/OR
WILL SEE INCREASES LAST NIGHT AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND WEATHER SCENARIO IS LOOKING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOCAL/BAJA CA. THE RESULTING
UPPER CIRCULATION COULD TAP MOISTURE OVER OLD MEXICO AND DRAW IT
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WE ARE WATCHING THIS CLOSELY SO
STAY TUNED. WINDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEK AND NEXT
SUNDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

NMZ501>540-131145-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
541 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A RATON TO SANTA ROSA TO CLOVIS LINE LATE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT WILL FOCUS FURTHER EAST NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SURGES AND WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DECREASE. IN THIS SCENARIO...SLOWER STORM
MOVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
705 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

NMZ528-529-531-532-130145-
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING
COUNTY-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
705 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORA...NORTHEASTERN
SAN MIGUEL AND WESTERN HARDING COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM MDT...

AT 701 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROY...OR ABOUT 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MOSQUERO...AND ANOTHER ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF ROY...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MOSQUERO...ROY AND SOLANO.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 10384 3568 10393 3579 10449 3602 10444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 278DEG 14KT 3592 10423

43

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
707 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             16 ENE SUMNER LAKE      34.73N 104.14W
06/12/2012  E1.00 INCH       DE BACA            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201227

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
708 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     HAIL             3 N WAGON MOUND         36.05N 104.71W
06/12/2012  M0.88 INCH       MORA               NM   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201228

CML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
726 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             7 W HOUSE               34.64N 104.03W
06/12/2012  E1.00 INCH       QUAY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201229

JLP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
745 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

NMZ531-532-130230-
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY-
745 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL AND
SOUTHEASTERN HARDING COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM MDT...

AT 740 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOSQUERO...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH. OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE 5 TO 10 MILES WEST OF CONCHAS
LAKE...ALSO MOVING EAST.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
HARDING AND NORTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES.

THIS STORM IS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE AREA ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 10369 3551 10361 3529 10386 3540 10445
      3580 10436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 278DEG 14KT 3567 10406

43

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
831 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     HAIL             CLOVIS                  34.41N 103.20W
06/12/2012  M1.75 INCH       CURRY              NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201230

CML