Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Albuquerque, NM

227 
WGUS65 KABQ 181232 CCA
FFAABQ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
631 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2012

CORRECTED PRODUCT EXPIRATION TIME

NMZ508-509-182100-
/O.NEW.KABQ.FF.A.0005.120718T1800Z-120719T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-
631 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW
  MEXICO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...SAN FRANCISCO RIVER
  VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

* FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PASS SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF
  CATRON COUNTY TODAY...PRODUCING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE
  SOUTHEAST. BURN SCARS IN CATRON COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED AROUND 1
  INCH OF RAIN IN RECENT DAYS...MAKING THEM ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE
  TO FLASH FLOODING TODAY. 

* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP WITHIN AND
  BELOW RECENTLY BURNED FORESTS. HAZARDOUS DEBRIS FLOWS MAY
  ACCOMPANY RAPIDLY RISING WATER LEVELS. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE
  NEW MEXICO PORTION OF THE WALLOW BURN SCAR...AS WELL AS THE
  WHITEWATER-BALDY AND MILLER BURN SCARS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

44/42/21

104 
WGUS65 KABQ 182123
FFAABQ

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
323 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2012

NMZ508-509-190500-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-120719T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-
323 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST 
  MOUNTAINS. 

* UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING

* AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PASS SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF 
  CATRON COUNTY TODAY...PRODUCING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE 
  SOUTHEAST. BURN SCARS IN CATRON COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED AROUND 1 
  INCH OF RAIN IN RECENT DAYS...MAKING THEM ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE 
  TO FLASH FLOODING TODAY. 

* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP WITHIN AND 
  BELOW RECENTLY BURNED FORESTS. HAZARDOUS DEBRIS FLOWS MAY 
  ACCOMPANY RAPIDLY RISING WATER LEVELS. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE 
  NEW MEXICO PORTION OF THE WALLOW BURN SCAR...AS WELL AS THE 
  WHITEWATER-BALDY AND MILLER BURN SCARS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

40

388 
WGUS65 KABQ 190458 AAB
FFAABQ

FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1058 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2012

NMZ508-509-190600-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-120719T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-
1058 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SAN FRANCISCO RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2012

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY. A
CHANGE IN STEERING FLOW TODAY FROM EAST TO WEST NEAR 5 KTS WILL
FAVOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
THIS WILL FAVOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOCALES SUCH AS KABQ...
KSAF...AND KGUP TO BE IMPACTED. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO EXCLUDE
TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW AND HOLD VCTS SINCE MODEL PERFORMANCE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS PRODUCED TOO MUCH STORM COVERAGE THAN OBSERVED.
ANY SITES THAT ARE DIRECTLY IMPACTED WOULD SEE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 40 KTS AND MODERATE TO HVY RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. GAP WINDS THIS MORNING AROUND KABQ WILL RETURN TONIGHT
AS STORM COMPLEXES SLIDE OFF OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MTS. MORE
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2012...
AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER BIG BEND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
GRADUALLY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FINALLY REACHING THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
ENERGY WILL TACK SOUTH OF NM...THE WAVE WILL CAUSE A TEMPORARILY
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION TODAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1 AGAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
DRAINAGE PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...THE BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL SEEMS SLIGHTLY TOO LOW TO REISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BECAUSE OF MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NM AND SE CO...THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE INSTABILITY FROM THE
EASTERLY WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NM...AND THE FACT THAT THE MODEST
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD HASNT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE
STATE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY...WITH NOTABLY LESS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE BEGINNING
FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FRI...WHERE
PERSISTENT AND MOIST SE FLOW AROUND THE NE QUADRANT OF THE
EASTERLY WAVE...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SAT...MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME RESIDES OVER AZ.

POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY...AND DEFINITELY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE 500 MB HIGH SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME BACK OVER NM AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR A
WAVE OR TWO TO INVIGORATE CONVECTION AS THEY TRACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE WEATHER DRIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. READINGS WILL
THEN TREND DOWNWARD DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK
AS THE MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS.

44

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
WILL JUST TREND DOWN EVEN MORE SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
CURRENT MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE POISED IMMEDIATELY OVER THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN TODAY...WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW GENERALLY WEST TO
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN TIER AND EAST TO WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.
MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND UP OVER TUESDAY AS BETTER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. MAX RECOVERIES THIS MORNING
WILL ALSO TREND UP TONIGHT AS MORE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
WETTING RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH FOOTPRINTS WILL REMAIN RATHER SMALL.

AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...
USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER EASTERN NM. THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE FOR LARGER WETTING RAINFALL
FOOTPRINTS. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO THEN SWING NORTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL SPRAWL FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE STATE BRINGING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR LATE JULY
AND WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INTO THE 30S
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STEERING
FLOW WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY EAST TO WEST DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
FAIR TO EVEN POOR VENTILATION RATES ARE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND
AS WEAKER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION.

EXTENDED COMPUTER MODELS THEN GO STRONGLY TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING
UP OVER THE SE STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER MEXICO IS
SHOWN TO SURGE NORTH OVER THE SW CONUS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS POOR.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

GUYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2012

NMZ501>540-191200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
613 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER BIG BEND WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY...SHIFTING A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AND A BETTER POTENTIAL IN SOUTHWEST CATRON COUNTY WHERE
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE VARIED AROUND 1 INCH OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PLEASE REVIEW THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
VICINITY OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY...THEN LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AS THE EASTERLY WAVE SLOWLY TRACKS
WESTWARD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THESE AREAS...WITH AN ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING WITHIN AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED FORESTS.

AFTER A DOWNTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...A BETTER MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOME STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRAINAGE PROBLEMS INCLUDING BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING...CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. SELECT THE STORM REPORT LINK ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE...WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABQ...OR CALL
US AT 888.386.7637.

44