Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Tucson, AZ

664 
WWUS55 KTWC 242328
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
428 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

AZC003-250000-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-110725T0000Z/
COCHISE AZ-
428 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MST
FOR NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 420 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED 
AROUND MULESHOE RANCH PRESERVE AND CASCABEL..OR ABOUT 17 MILES WEST 
OF WILLCOX...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH COULD LIMIT
VISIBILITIES OR LEAD TO FLOODING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 3210 11044 3242 11044 3243 11000 3223 10983
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 050DEG 5KT 3230 11012

$$

044 
WWUS55 KTWC 250002
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
502 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

AZC003-250012-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-110725T0000Z/
COCHISE AZ-
502 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...

STRONG STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA BUT 
THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH HAD DIMINISHED. 
HOWEVER...FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MST. 

LAT...LON 3210 11044 3242 11044 3243 11000 3223 10983
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 050DEG 5KT 3230 11012

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING REDUCED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THE
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER IMAGERY STILL INDICATING
VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.65 INCHES NEAR THE SWRN NEW MEXICO
BORDER TO NEAR 1.90 INCHES ACROSS FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS SWRN NM AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
OCCURRING AS OF 2105Z SE OF TUCSON. 24/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND THE
24/15Z SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A VERY CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE PERIOD
WILL OCCUR INTO MON.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
FOR MUCH OF SE AZ. WRN PIMA COUNTY...THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION...AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY IS EXCLUDED FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
THE STRONGER TSTMS WILL LIKELY GENERATE WIND GUSTS TO PERHAPS AS
HIGH AS 50 KTS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT THUS ENDING THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN...THE AREAL COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY HIGH.

FOR MON...MID-LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME STALLED OVER SE AZ. PER
COORD WITH WFO/S PSR/FGZ...WILL DEFER ANY ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MON TO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT THE
BULK OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY OCCUR JUST NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND OVER SRN GILA COUNTY EAST OF
PHOENIX. AT ANY RATE...CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS JUSTIFIED FOR MUCH OF SE
AZ MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUE.

WED-THUR...THE 24/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL ENCROACH UPON WRN SECTIONS OF THIS FORECAST
AREA. THUS HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD MAINLY FROM TUCSON WWD TO
DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

FRI-SUN...DEEPER MOISTURE TO SPREAD WWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SERN CONUS EXPANDS WWD. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI-SUN.

HIGH TEMPS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3-5 DEGS F BELOW NORMAL MON-TUE THEN A
WARMING TREND TO OCCUR WED-THUR. DAYTIME TEMPS FRI-SUN TO AVERAGE A
FEW DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z MONDAY. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
TSRA. PRECIP TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE 06Z-18Z MONDAY THEN
SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA TO OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY 7-11K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FOR AZZ503-504-506>514.

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
307 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

AZZ503-504-506>515-251400-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
307 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
PLEASE REFER TO AWIPS PRODUCT PHXFFATWC /WMO HEADER WGUS65 KTWC/
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ALSO...EVEN MODERATED RAINFALL OVER
THE RECENT BURN AREAS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THIS WEEK AND SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON