Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Tucson, AZ

859 
WWUS55 KTWC 242314
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
414 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

AZC009-242345-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-110724T2345Z/
GRAHAM AZ-
414 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY...

AT 406 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THESE 
STORMS WERE LOCATED SOUTH OF SAFFORD...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.  
MOTORISTS TRAVELING ON STATE HIGHWAY 191 AND 266 SOUTH OF SAFFORD 
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THESE STORMS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH COULD LIMIT
VISIBILITIES OR LEAD TO FLOODING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 10999 3280 11003 3288 10937 3243 10932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 083DEG 4KT 3263 10968

$$

637 
WWUS55 KTWC 242346
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
446 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

AZC009-242354-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-110724T2345Z/
GRAHAM AZ-
446 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM MST...

STRONG STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA BUT 
THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH HAD DIMINISHED. 
HOWEVER...FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MST. 


LAT...LON 3243 10999 3280 11003 3288 10937 3243 10932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 083DEG 4KT 3263 10972

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING REDUCED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THE
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER IMAGERY STILL INDICATING
VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.65 INCHES NEAR THE SWRN NEW MEXICO
BORDER TO NEAR 1.90 INCHES ACROSS FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS SWRN NM AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
OCCURRING AS OF 2105Z SE OF TUCSON. 24/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND THE
24/15Z SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A VERY CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE PERIOD
WILL OCCUR INTO MON.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
FOR MUCH OF SE AZ. WRN PIMA COUNTY...THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION...AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY IS EXCLUDED FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
THE STRONGER TSTMS WILL LIKELY GENERATE WIND GUSTS TO PERHAPS AS
HIGH AS 50 KTS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT THUS ENDING THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN...THE AREAL COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY HIGH.

FOR MON...MID-LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME STALLED OVER SE AZ. PER
COORD WITH WFO/S PSR/FGZ...WILL DEFER ANY ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MON TO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT THE
BULK OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY OCCUR JUST NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND OVER SRN GILA COUNTY EAST OF
PHOENIX. AT ANY RATE...CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS JUSTIFIED FOR MUCH OF SE
AZ MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUE.

WED-THUR...THE 24/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL ENCROACH UPON WRN SECTIONS OF THIS FORECAST
AREA. THUS HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD MAINLY FROM TUCSON WWD TO
DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

FRI-SUN...DEEPER MOISTURE TO SPREAD WWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SERN CONUS EXPANDS WWD. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI-SUN.

HIGH TEMPS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3-5 DEGS F BELOW NORMAL MON-TUE THEN A
WARMING TREND TO OCCUR WED-THUR. DAYTIME TEMPS FRI-SUN TO AVERAGE A
FEW DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z MONDAY. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
TSRA. PRECIP TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE 06Z-18Z MONDAY THEN
SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA TO OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY 7-11K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FOR AZZ503-504-506>514.

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
307 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

AZZ503-504-506>515-251400-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
307 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
PLEASE REFER TO AWIPS PRODUCT PHXFFATWC /WMO HEADER WGUS65 KTWC/
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ALSO...EVEN MODERATED RAINFALL OVER
THE RECENT BURN AREAS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THIS WEEK AND SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON