Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE SEEN TODAY...BUT
SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AT MOST
SITES. KMLC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS...SO THEY
MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...
WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. 1 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THE WATCH AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SO...ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
MAY CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE INITIAL SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THIS
LINE WILL NOT SHIFT TOO MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A SOUTHERLY 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET ACROSS THE AREA. SO...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME.

A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO IS PLAYING OUT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW WORKS TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS THE ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF NEW MEXICO
AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MAKE BETTER PROGRESS
TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH LARGE HAIL AND
A QLCS TYPE TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.

SEVERAL DAYS OF BENIGN WEATHER ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A
WARM UP WILL ENSUE THEREAFTER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY. THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...05

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
858 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

OKZ070-071-073>075-081545-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
858 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN HASKELL...SOUTHERN MCINTOSH...EASTERN PITTSBURG AND
     LATIMER

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE

AT 858 AM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CROWDER TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF HARTSHORNE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
BLOCKER...HARTSHORNE...EUFAULA...HIGGINS...ENTERPRISE...QUINTON...
ROBBERS CAVE STATE PARK...DAMON...WILBURTON...KINTA...BRIARTOWN...
WHITEFIELD...PORUM...STIGLER...LEQUIRE AND RED OAK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3527 9589 3542 9508 3479 9507 3468 9547
      3468 9551 3466 9552 3461 9570
TIME...MOT...LOC 1458Z 240DEG 45KT 3516 9560 3467 9559

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

OKZ072-074>076-081615-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
931 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN HASKELL...NORTHWESTERN LE FLORE AND NORTHEASTERN LATIMER

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL SEQUOYAH

AT 931 AM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF STIGLER TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
RED OAK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
STIGLER...LEQUIRE...RED OAK...TAMAHA...MCCURTAIN...FANSHAWE...
KEOTA...BRUSHY LAKE STATE PARK...BOKOSHE...SALLISAW...BRUSHY...
GANS...POTEAU AND PANAMA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3483 9512 3535 9515 3536 9514 3537 9516
      3539 9511 3544 9507 3564 9463 3502 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1531Z 239DEG 48KT 3539 9514 3490 9513