Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
909 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE SENT OUT UPDATED ZONES A COUPLE OF TIMES THIS EVENING FOR
TORNADO WATCH HEADLINES. ANGRY BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY HEADED
EASTWARD INTO CREEK... PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES. INSTABILITY
DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE EAST... SO WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR
WITH TIME. ALREADY HAVE MAX POPS ACROSS THE AREA... SO NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE DONE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF
LOW CIGS AND PERIODS OF TSTMS TO THE TAF SITES. TRIED TO TIME THE
BEST CHNCS AT EACH SITE WITHIN TEMPO GROUPS. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
LOWER AS WELL INTO THE SUB-2K RANGE OR POSSIBLY HIGH END IFR
TOWARD 12Z. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS ERN OK AND NW
AR BTWN 18Z AND 00Z...WITH STORMS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW EXPTD.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...AND POTENTIAL FLOODING/SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH
EXPECTED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVING INITIATED WITHIN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS SHOULD FORM INTO A COMPLEX AND MOVE
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS POSING AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TO
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 TONIGHT. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
44...WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT. THERE WAS DISCUSSION ABOUT ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BUT ULTIMATELY ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE ONE DUE TO RELATIVE
LACK OF RAINFALL IN THAT AREA TODAY AND HIGHER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF AN URBAN/SMALL STREAMS FLOOD ADVISORY OR EVEN A
WARNING OR TWO BECOME NECESSARY...HOWEVER...DUE TO EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW. SEVERE
THREAT TOMORROW SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ISOLATED...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DUE TO FRONTAL TIMING. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTH WINDS
RETURN AND A STEADY WARMUP ENSUES INTO THE WEEKEND. MID RANGE
MODELS DEPICT A FAIRLY QUICK BUT STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TIMING HAS HAD LITTLE
CONSISTENCY SO FAR. WILL BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
WHOLE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
612 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY IN A PART OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...COUNTIES BORDERING KANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS... OR
LINES OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE... WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE GREATEST THREAT. THERE IS ALSO THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THEREFORE... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1 AM FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER...
AND ALSO PAWNEE COUNTY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA... AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING. AS STORMS MOVE FURTHER
EAST... THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS HIGHER
INSTABILITY IS ENCOUNTERED. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG AND SUPPORT POCKETS
OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS. ONCE THE STORMS
PASS... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BRING GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK... WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

OKZ054-080000-
OSAGE OK-
515 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OSAGE

AT 515 PM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEBB CITY TO 23 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BURBANK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
BURBANK...SHIDLER AND GRAINOLA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9654 3658 9673 3650 9700 3650 9701
      3654 9699 3656 9691 3658 9690 3659 9692
      3658 9700 3659 9706 3665 9707 3671 9703
      3669 9695 3675 9689 3675 9683 3679 9676
      3701 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 225DEG 45KT 3693 9685 3655 9706

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
703 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

OKZ054-055-080145-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
703 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE AND WASHINGTON

AT 703 PM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTH OF HULAH TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FAIRFAX...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
WYNONA...PAWHUSKA...BIGHEART...OSAGE HILLS STATE PARK...COPAN...
DEWEY...HULAH AND OKESA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9579 3688 9582 3649 9632 3646 9672
      3648 9670 3654 9673 3656 9678 3647 9687
      3646 9695 3648 9701 3652 9701 3654 9699
      3656 9690 3659 9692 3658 9701 3701 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 239DEG 28KT 3715 9593 3663 9661

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
930 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     HAIL             1 E TERLTON             36.19N 96.47W
11/07/2011  E1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PBS

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