Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...

OUTFLOW REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES NEAR THE KS BORDER AND
INTO WRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXISTS OVER WESTERN AR IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS THAT TRACKED
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THAT STATE. HEATING AND DEEP MIXING HAS
ALLOWED FOR SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST OK AS WELL. BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SHOULD PROGRESS
SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF A GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS DEVELOP STORMS
OVER SW MO NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND TRACK
THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO AR TONIGHT ALONG LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. BY SUNDAY...THE WEAK FRONT SHOULD LIE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OK INTO SOUTHWEST AR WHERE ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT TO OFFSET THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...AND THUS A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF ERN OK AND W CNTRL AR ON
SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AS WARM
ADVECTION INTENSIFIES ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RETREATING
BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS/RAIN TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN...I HAVE TRENDED MONDAY HIGH TEMPS DOWN. THIS AREA OF RAIN
SHOULD SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REBOUND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN THE NAM'S RECENT POOR
PERFORMANCE I WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NOT
GO QUITE SO HOT.

TODAY'S SUITE OF MODEL RUNS IS BACKING OFF ON A SUBSTANTIAL COLD
FRONT FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...AND REBUILD RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. I HAVE THUS TRENDED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HIGHER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS MORE LIKE 90S
FOR HIGHS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. STILL NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR
PRECIP...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  98  77  94 /  20  10  20  30
FSM   77  99  76  96 /  40  20  10  30
MLC   79 102  76  98 /  20  20  10  30
BVO   72  97  73  94 /  20  10  20  30
FYV   73  93  71  91 /  40  10  10  30
BYV   73  92  71  89 /  50  10   0  30
MKO   77  99  76  94 /  30  10  10  30
MIO   73  94  74  90 /  30  10  10  40
F10   78 100  76  96 /  20  20  10  30
HHW   79 102  77  98 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ029.

&&

LONG TERM....30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
503 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
503 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ONE OR
TWOS STORMS BRIEFLY MEETING SEVERE LIMITS ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING. LOW COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY ALSO LINGER OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL TEMPORARILY
LESSEN THE EFFECTS OF THE HEAT AND FIRE DANGER.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE AND BREVITY OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO MONDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. HOT
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
429 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

OKZ066-202200-
OKMULGEE OK-
429 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OKMULGEE

AT 429 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DEWAR...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...DEWAR.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3551 9587 3543 9588 3538 9595 3547 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 250DEG 8KT 3544 9591

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
433 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

OKZ071-202200-
MCINTOSH OK-
433 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN MCINTOSH

AT 433 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MCINTOSH
COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH..

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3529 9598 3533 9598 3538 9587 3528 9583
      3518 9599 3523 9599 3529 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 240DEG 10KT 3530 9595

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

ARZ019-029-202300-
CRAWFORD AR-SEBASTIAN AR-
529 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN SEBASTIAN

AT 530 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
CENTRAL CITY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...URSULA...BARLING...LAVACA...BLOOMER
AND CENTRAL CITY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3544 9408 3527 9408 3529 9431 3542 9434
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 267DEG 22KT 3536 9423

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
532 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

OKZ065-202300-
OKFUSKEE OK-
532 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 532 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CLEARVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLEARVIEW AND PHAROAH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3540 9632 3545 9614 3535 9606 3533 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 262DEG 13KT 3537 9623

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

ARZ019-020-029-202315-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-SEBASTIAN AR-
546 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND NORTHEASTERN SEBASTIAN

AT 547 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM DYER TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MULBERRY TO 7 MILES SOUTH
OF MULBERRY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PLEASANT HILL...MULBERRY...
CECIL...TONEY...LONELM...CRAVENS AND DYER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3561 9400 3558 9385 3547 9384 3538 9413
      3543 9415 3551 9419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 241DEG 26KT 3552 9411 3548 9407
          3541 9406