Heat Advisory 17, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...

OUTFLOW REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES NEAR THE KS BORDER AND
INTO WRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXISTS OVER WESTERN AR IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS THAT TRACKED
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THAT STATE. HEATING AND DEEP MIXING HAS
ALLOWED FOR SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST OK AS WELL. BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SHOULD PROGRESS
SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF A GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS DEVELOP STORMS
OVER SW MO NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND TRACK
THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO AR TONIGHT ALONG LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. BY SUNDAY...THE WEAK FRONT SHOULD LIE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OK INTO SOUTHWEST AR WHERE ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT TO OFFSET THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...AND THUS A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF ERN OK AND W CNTRL AR ON
SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AS WARM
ADVECTION INTENSIFIES ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RETREATING
BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS/RAIN TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN...I HAVE TRENDED MONDAY HIGH TEMPS DOWN. THIS AREA OF RAIN
SHOULD SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REBOUND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN THE NAM'S RECENT POOR
PERFORMANCE I WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NOT
GO QUITE SO HOT.

TODAY'S SUITE OF MODEL RUNS IS BACKING OFF ON A SUBSTANTIAL COLD
FRONT FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...AND REBUILD RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. I HAVE THUS TRENDED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HIGHER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS MORE LIKE 90S
FOR HIGHS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. STILL NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR
PRECIP...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  98  77  94 /  20  10  20  30
FSM   77  99  76  96 /  40  20  10  30
MLC   79 102  76  98 /  20  20  10  30
BVO   72  97  73  94 /  20  10  20  30
FYV   73  93  71  91 /  40  10  10  30
BYV   73  92  71  89 /  50  10   0  30
MKO   77  99  76  94 /  30  10  10  30
MIO   73  94  74  90 /  30  10  10  40
F10   78 100  76  96 /  20  20  10  30
HHW   79 102  77  98 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ029.

&&

LONG TERM....30

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
230 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

OKZ071-073-202000-
MCINTOSH OK-PITTSBURG OK-
230 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL MCINTOSH AND NORTHERN PITTSBURG

AT 230 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF EUFAULA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...EUFAULA AND LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3543 9560 3535 9549 3529 9554 3519 9565
      3520 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 217DEG 19KT 3525 9566