Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TO THE NORTHEAST OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST
TEXAS.

THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE FROM THE JUST DEVELOPING STORMS BETWEEN GREAT BEND AND
DODGE CITY KANSAS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO A
COMPLEX AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO A VERY HOT UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THAT RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WESTERN...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS
COMPLEX AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. IT WILL LIKELY BE
MID TO LATE EVENING THOUGH BEFORE THESE STORMS AFFECT SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALSO EXISTS WITH THE STORMS FURTHER NORTH
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT MORE MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
IS MORE LIMITED NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY
SO WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT MAY NEVER CLEAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SO ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE
EVEN SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. THIS AREA WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE
COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ADVANCE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT MOST ANY DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA SO THE HEAT WILL BE RETURNING...BUT IT
WILL BE TEMPERED SOME BY CURRENT AND RECENT RAINFALL. THE ECMWF
DOES BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK BUT
WILL NOT BITE ON THIS JUST YET AND WAIT TO SEE IF FUTURE RUNS SHOW
MORE CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS EXCEPT
WENT COOLER FOR LOW TONIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  93 /  60  20  10  10
FSM   71  95  72  95 /  50  20  10  10
MLC   71  95  72  95 /  40  20  10  10
BVO   68  92  66  92 /  60  20  10  10
FYV   67  88  65  88 /  60  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  65  87 /  60  20  10  10
MKO   71  94  70  94 /  40  20  10  10
MIO   67  90  65  90 /  60  20  10  10
F10   70  94  71  94 /  50  20  10  10
HHW   72  97  74  97 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
459 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
459 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT AND
ALSO GUSTY WINDS UP AROUND 50 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION.

ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTH OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND
100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 106 DEGREES. THESE HOT
CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BURBANK TO FORT SMITH LINE.
THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND FIRE DANGERS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD OVER REGION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGERS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTHWARD AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
649 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

OKZ064-065-130015-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-
649 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OKFUSKEE

AT 649 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PADEN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CASTLE...PADEN...BOLEY...MASON...
OKFUSKEE AND WELTY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3571 9622 3549 9617 3544 9662 3563 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 259DEG 19KT 3555 9653

69

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
651 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             3 W OKAY                35.85N 95.37W
08/12/2011  E0.75 INCH       WAGONER            OK   PUBLIC

            CHOUTEAU LOCK AND DAM

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
659 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             MUSKOGEE                35.75N 95.37W
08/12/2011  E1.00 INCH       MUSKOGEE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            EAST SIDE...

&&

SAA

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