Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN MCINTOSH COUNTY.
TEMPS BEHIND THE MAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH INITIATED THIS
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. SHORT TERM GRIDS SEEM TO HAVE THIS SET UP
UNDER CONTROL AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY EVENING UPDATES. ALSO...THE
HEAT HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  88  73  97 /  50  40  30  40
FSM   70  90  72 100 /  40  60  20  40
MLC   70  94  74 102 /  30  40  20  30
BVO   67  88  70  96 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   65  85  67  93 /  50  60  20  50
BYV   65  85  67  92 /  50  60  20  50
MKO   69  89  72  98 /  40  50  20  40
MIO   65  86  69  94 /  40  40  30  40
F10   69  91  73  99 /  40  40  20  40
HHW   73  98  75 102 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION....30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
952 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111500-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
952 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST AS
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER DANGER REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER AND CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
                       DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONTINUING THURSDAY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING
INTO FRIDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE AS THESE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD
RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE MONDAY TIME FRAME ALLOWING FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP.

HOT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THESE LOCATIONS REMAIN SOUTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION. HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH AROUND 100 DEGREES
POSSIBLE. HOT TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
FOR LIMITED TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
913 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

ARZ010-011-110245-
MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
913 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON

AT 913 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
BRENTWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HICKS...PATRICK...DELANEY...
CROSSES...WINSLOW...WEST FORK...BLACKBURN...BRENTWOOD...WOOLSEY...
WYOLA AND ARNETT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 3577 9387 3577 9391 3576 9392 3576 9396
      3577 9427 3595 9423 3593 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 279DEG 22KT 3585 9414

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

ARZ010-011-019-110245-
CRAWFORD AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
914 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN
     WASHINGTON

AT 914 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTH OF
WOOLSEY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BIDVILLE...PATRICK...DELANEY...CROSSES...
WINSLOW...BRENTWOOD...WOOLSEY...WYOLA AND ARNETT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3577 9390 3577 9391 3576 9391 3573 9394
      3573 9396 3570 9397 3584 9421 3594 9412
      3592 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 278DEG 23KT 3585 9412

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
952 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

OKZ067-070-110330-
MUSKOGEE OK-WAGONER OK-
952 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN WAGONER

AT 953 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
STONEBLUFF...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHOSKA...TULLAHASSEE...PORTER...
STONEBLUFF...REDBIRD...JAMESVILLE...TAFT AND HASKELL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 3590 9577 3592 9576 3589 9541 3566 9546
      3573 9577 3585 9576 3586 9582 3590 9582
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 278DEG 25KT 3582 9572

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