Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN MCINTOSH COUNTY.
TEMPS BEHIND THE MAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH INITIATED THIS
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. SHORT TERM GRIDS SEEM TO HAVE THIS SET UP
UNDER CONTROL AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY EVENING UPDATES. ALSO...THE
HEAT HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  88  73  97 /  50  40  30  40
FSM   70  90  72 100 /  40  60  20  40
MLC   70  94  74 102 /  30  40  20  30
BVO   67  88  70  96 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   65  85  67  93 /  50  60  20  50
BYV   65  85  67  92 /  50  60  20  50
MKO   69  89  72  98 /  40  50  20  40
MIO   65  86  69  94 /  40  40  30  40
F10   69  91  73  99 /  40  40  20  40
HHW   73  98  75 102 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION....30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
518 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA OF GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BURBANK TO FORT SMITH LINE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS OUT WEST AND PROGRESSES TOWARD THE
REGION. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST AS THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RECENT RAINS HAVE REMAINED TO THE NORTH OF
THESE AREAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO
CREATE LIMITED FIRE WEATHER DANGERS ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A BURBANK TO FORT SMITH LINE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
                      POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTINUING THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE COMPLEX DEVELOPING INTO
FRIDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AS THESE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CONTINUING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD RETREAT BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THE MONDAY TIME FRAME ALLOWING FOR THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP.

HOT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THESE LOCATIONS REMAIN SOUTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION. HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH AROUND 100 DEGREES
POSSIBLE. HOT TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
FOR LIMITED TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
834 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

ARZ010-011-019-020-110200-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
834 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN
     WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN FRANKLIN

AT 834 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WOOLSEY...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...BIDVILLE...PATRICK...DELANEY...CROSSES...WINSLOW...
BLACKBURN...BRENTWOOD...WOOLSEY...WYOLA...ARNETT AND MOUNT GAYLER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3587 9382 3563 9395 3584 9427 3595 9416
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 285DEG 32KT 3585 9414

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
840 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE MORRIS             35.65N 95.81W
08/10/2011  E60 MPH          OKMULGEE           OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
857 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     TSTM WND GST     HITCHITA                35.52N 95.75W
08/10/2011  E60 MPH          MCINTOSH           OK   PUBLIC

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST ESTIMATED TO 60 WITH TREE DAMAGE.
            ALSO HAD DIME AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
913 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

ARZ010-011-110245-
MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
913 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON

AT 913 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
BRENTWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HICKS...PATRICK...DELANEY...
CROSSES...WINSLOW...WEST FORK...BLACKBURN...BRENTWOOD...WOOLSEY...
WYOLA AND ARNETT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 3577 9387 3577 9391 3576 9392 3576 9396
      3577 9427 3595 9423 3593 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 279DEG 22KT 3585 9414

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

ARZ010-011-019-110245-
CRAWFORD AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
914 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN
     WASHINGTON

AT 914 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTH OF
WOOLSEY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BIDVILLE...PATRICK...DELANEY...CROSSES...
WINSLOW...BRENTWOOD...WOOLSEY...WYOLA AND ARNETT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3577 9390 3577 9391 3576 9391 3573 9394
      3573 9396 3570 9397 3584 9421 3594 9412
      3592 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 278DEG 23KT 3585 9412

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