Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
948 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP PAWNEE CREEK AND TULSA COUNTY
FROM WATCH AND REMOVE PRECIP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTION ON A GRADUAL DOWNTREND AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER STILL CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND. WATCHES REMAIN.
PLENTY OF WIND THIS EVENING...RAINFALL DISAPPOINTING.
LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED TO HAVE STARTED MORE FIRES.
TEMP / DEW POINT / WIND ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR PNC TO TUL TO JUST
N OF FSM. TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN PNC AND TUL. ANOTHER AREA OF TSRA IS IN SE KS/SW MO.
BVO/TUL/RVS SHOULD SEE TSRA AT LEAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THRU
04Z...WITH TSRA IN KS/MO AFFECTING XNA/FYV/FSM THIS EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT OCCUR AT THE TERMINAL ITSELF WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DOWNBURSTS...WITH SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KFYV THROUGH
THE TULSA METRO AREA TO NEAR STILLWATER. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS IT LINGERS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 70 MPH THE MAIN CONCERN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT
OF KANSAS AND ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE OF
A FRONTAL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR THE RED RIVER. HAVE EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 105. WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE RECONFIGURED ON
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS BACK TO THE NORTH AND A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORK ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE CONCERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA IN RECENT WEEKS HAS PRETTY
WELL FLATTENED OUT. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER THE ROCKIES...RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  99  75  96 /  10  10  30  40
FSM   76 101  78  97 /  40  10  10  30
MLC   78 106  78 101 /  30   0  10  20
BVO   73  98  71  91 /  40  10  30  50
FYV   72  95  70  92 /  60  10  10  40
BYV   71  90  69  88 /  70  10  10  40
MKO   75 101  75  96 /  50  10  20  30
MIO   68  95  71  88 /  60  10  20  40
F10   77 103  75  98 /  40   0  20  30
HHW   80 106  78 103 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
     OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ063-OKZ069.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
505 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...DANGEROUS WILDFIRE SITUATION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
...RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING FIRE SITUATION MAY BECOME CRITICAL THIS EVENING AS DEVELOPING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH WIND
GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 40 MILES AN HOUR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT AND ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MAKE FIRE SUPPRESSION NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS WELL PRIMED BY EXCESSIVE HEAT AND DRY LOWER LEVELS
TO PRODUCE LOCAL DOWNBURST WINDS OF 70 MILES AN HOUR. HAIL WILL BE
A SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT.

A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY FROM AROUND PONCA CITY TO TULSA TO AROUND
FAYETTEVILLE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THEN STALL AS AN IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IGNITES THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE STORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE AN
ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT ON WEDNESDAY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINES
WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT. THE STRONGER STORMS WOULD LIKELY
POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. IN ADDITION...FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS GENERALLY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

OKZ065-066-068-070>076-090345-
CHEROKEE OK-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE
OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
939 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CHEROKEE...MUSKOGEE...SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE AND
     SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL...NORTHERN LE FLORE...MCINTOSH...NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG
     AND NORTHEASTERN LATIMER

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE

AT 939 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF BRAGGS TO 7 MILES WEST OF PORUM TO 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRYANT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3535 9620 3563 9562 3584 9525 3549 9450
      3503 9471 3500 9533 3526 9599 3529 9599
      3528 9604
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 297DEG 37KT 3572 9520 3534 9536
          3531 9599

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1009 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

ARZ002-011-090400-
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
1009 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN MADISON

AT 1009 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM PLEASANT RIDGE TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EUREKA
SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BLUE EYE...OAK GROVE...OAK HILL...
PLEASANT RIDGE...DENVER...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...OSAGE...GREEN
FOREST...DRYFORK...DELMAR...METALTON...RUDD...CONNOR...CARROLLTON...
CABANAL...RULE...COIN...URBANETTE...GRANDVIEW AND ROCKHOUSE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3612 9330 3611 9353 3630 9386 3631 9383
      3633 9385 3651 9372 3651 9335 3650 9329
      3612 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 295DEG 33KT 3647 9363 3633 9379

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

ARZ001-010-011-090400-
BENTON AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
1014 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     EASTERN BENTON...NORTHERN MADISON AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON

AT 1014 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF LARUE TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JOHNSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...HARMONY...BLAND...GEORGETOWN...
SHADY GROVE...TUTTLE...MAYFIELD...WAR EAGLE...LOOKOUT...LARUE...
HUNTSVILLE...WESLEY...HINDSVILLE...FORUM...BEST...JAPTON...ALABAM...
CLIFTY...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...ELKINS...GOSHEN...JOHNSON...
SONORA...HOBBS STATE PARK AND WITHROW SPRINGS STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3613 9357 3589 9388 3612 9427 3636 9393
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 301DEG 33KT 3629 9403 3610 9417

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1023 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW HASKELL            35.79N 95.71W
08/08/2011                   MUSKOGEE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BARN DAMAGED...SAME BARN WAS DAMAGED BY THE TORNADO ON
            MAY 24TH...WIND ESTIMATED 80 MPH.

&&

SFP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

ARZ002-011-090415-
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
1046 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND MADISON

AT 1046 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF CARROLLTON TO CROSSES...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...HARMONY...GEORGETOWN...RED STAR...WEATHERS...
OSAGE...DRYFORK...DELMAR...METALTON...RUDD...CONNOR...CARROLLTON...
RULE...COIN...HUNTSVILLE...SAINT PAUL...PETTIGREW...AURORA...
WESLEY...KINGSTON...COMBS...BRASHEARS...DUTTON...PATRICK...BOSTON...
DELANEY...CROSSES...WITTER...JAPTON...MARBLE...ALABAM AND WITHROW
SPRINGS STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3612 9347 3609 9347 3608 9344 3597 9345
      3592 9350 3576 9352 3577 9374 3577 9395
      3605 9395 3638 9330 3612 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 304DEG 40KT 3621 9329 3588 9387

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ072-076-090430-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
1055 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     WESTERN FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 1052 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY TO NORTH CENTRAL LEFLORE
COUNTY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...NORTHEAST LEFLORE COUNTY...
CRAWFORD COUNTY SEBASTIAN COUNTY AND WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45
MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3507 9419 3507 9423 3496 9423 3497 9474
      3513 9454 3546 9445 3569 9448 3568 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 293DEG 31KT 3562 9451 3545 9456
          3526 9457 3511 9467 3497 9480