Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
925 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTION ON A GRADUAL DOWNTREND AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER STILL CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND. WATCHES REMAIN.
PLENTY OF WIND THIS EVENING...RAINFALL DISAPPOINTING.
LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED TO HAVE STARTED MORE FIRES.
TEMP / DEW POINT / WIND ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR PNC TO TUL TO JUST
N OF FSM. TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN PNC AND TUL. ANOTHER AREA OF TSRA IS IN SE KS/SW MO.
BVO/TUL/RVS SHOULD SEE TSRA AT LEAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THRU
04Z...WITH TSRA IN KS/MO AFFECTING XNA/FYV/FSM THIS EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT OCCUR AT THE TERMINAL ITSELF WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DOWNBURSTS...WITH SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KFYV THROUGH
THE TULSA METRO AREA TO NEAR STILLWATER. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS IT LINGERS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 70 MPH THE MAIN CONCERN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT
OF KANSAS AND ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE OF
A FRONTAL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR THE RED RIVER. HAVE EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 105. WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE RECONFIGURED ON
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS BACK TO THE NORTH AND A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORK ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE CONCERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA IN RECENT WEEKS HAS PRETTY
WELL FLATTENED OUT. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER THE ROCKIES...RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  99  75  96 /  60  10  30  40
FSM   76 101  78  97 /  40  10  10  30
MLC   78 106  78 101 /  30   0  10  20
BVO   73  98  71  91 /  40  10  30  50
FYV   72  95  70  92 /  60  10  10  40
BYV   71  90  69  88 /  70  10  10  40
MKO   75 101  75  96 /  50  10  20  30
MIO   68  95  71  88 /  60  10  20  40
F10   77 103  75  98 /  60   0  20  30
HHW   80 106  78 103 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
     OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ063-OKZ069.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
505 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...DANGEROUS WILDFIRE SITUATION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
...RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING FIRE SITUATION MAY BECOME CRITICAL THIS EVENING AS DEVELOPING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH WIND
GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 40 MILES AN HOUR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT AND ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MAKE FIRE SUPPRESSION NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS WELL PRIMED BY EXCESSIVE HEAT AND DRY LOWER LEVELS
TO PRODUCE LOCAL DOWNBURST WINDS OF 70 MILES AN HOUR. HAIL WILL BE
A SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT.

A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY FROM AROUND PONCA CITY TO TULSA TO AROUND
FAYETTEVILLE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THEN STALL AS AN IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IGNITES THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE STORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE AN
ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT ON WEDNESDAY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINES
WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT. THE STRONGER STORMS WOULD LIKELY
POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. IN ADDITION...FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS GENERALLY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
848 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W HECTORVILLE         35.84N 96.00W
08/08/2011  M66 MPH          OKMULGEE           OK   MESONET

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
853 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S SAPULPA             35.96N 96.11W
08/08/2011  M58 MPH          CREEK              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEASURED AT THE LONE STAR SCHOOL SCHOOLNET.

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

ARZ001-OKZ057-058-061>063-090230-
BENTON AR-CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-OTTAWA OK-ROGERS OK-
905 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN BENTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CRAIG...NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHERN MAYES...SOUTHERN
     OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN ROGERS

AT 903 PM CDT...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER OTTAWA
COUNTY WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF
TIFF CITY TO 7 MILES WEST OF BIG CABIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...JAY...PRYOR...SPAVINAW...ADAIR...
PENSACOLA...MAYSVILLE...SPAVINAW STATE PARK...BERNICE STATE PARK...
AND HONEY CREEK STATE PARK.

WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH MAY BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 3672 9461 3651 9461 3650 9460 3635 9458
      3629 9532 3665 9543 3670 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 312DEG 39KT 3660 9460 3652 9534

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

OKZ058-090245-
OTTAWA OK-
908 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN OTTAWA

AT 908 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF PEORIA TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WYANDOTTE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...FAIRLAND...WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...
PEORIA...QUAPAW AND TWIN BRIDGES STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3699 9461 3667 9461 3667 9462 3675 9487
      3700 9482 3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 294DEG 35KT 3696 9460 3672 9465

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
909 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N BROKEN ARROW        36.10N 95.79W
08/08/2011                   TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            POWER LINES REPORTED AT THE BA EXPRESSWAY AND 145TH EAST
            AVE. POSSIBLY RESULTED IN A FIRE.

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

OKZ065-066-068-070>076-090345-
CHEROKEE OK-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE
OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
939 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CHEROKEE...MUSKOGEE...SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE AND
     SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL...NORTHERN LE FLORE...MCINTOSH...NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG
     AND NORTHEASTERN LATIMER

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE

AT 939 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF BRAGGS TO 7 MILES WEST OF PORUM TO 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRYANT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3535 9620 3563 9562 3584 9525 3549 9450
      3503 9471 3500 9533 3526 9599 3529 9599
      3528 9604
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 297DEG 37KT 3572 9520 3534 9536
          3531 9599