Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SEMI PERMANENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SEEMS TO HAVE INHABITED THE
REGION FOR THE SUMMER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IN FACT... WE WILL BE SITUATED CLOSE TO THE CENTER
OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE... WHICH WILL MEAN VERY LITTLE AIR
MOVEMENT. THIS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DAY TO DAY CHANGE
IN CONDITIONS.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT MOST... ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL AT LEAST
AID THOSE AREAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO EXPERIENCE A SHOWER TO MAXIMIZE
THE EFFECTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AFTER SATURDAY...
SQUELCHING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... AND CONTINUING THE WIDESPREAD HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79 101  79 103 /  20  20   0  10
FSM   77  99  77 100 /  50  30  10  10
MLC   77  99  76 101 /  40  20  10  10
BVO   73 101  74 101 /  20  30   0  10
FYV   72  95  72  95 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   73  93  72  93 /  50  40  10  10
MKO   76  99  77 101 /  40  30  10  10
MIO   76  97  75  99 /  30  30  10  10
F10   77 101  78 101 /  30  20  10  10
HHW   76  95  77  98 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
     OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ069.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...URBAN AREAS.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS.  OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN AREAS.

DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA HAVE RESULTED IN CURED
VEGETATION...WHICH IGNITES VERY EASILY. EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE
MOST VULNERABLE FOR FIRES THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN AROUND 30 PERCENT.  GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CAUSE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM AND DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE PLAINS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NEXT WEEK WILL BE AS HOT...IF NOT HOTTER...THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE ONLY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
421 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

OKZ068-292145-
CHEROKEE OK-
421 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CHEROKEE

AT 422 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PEGGS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PEGGS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3600 9486 3595 9505 3607 9517 3607 9512
      3611 9512 3617 9495 3616 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 063DEG 3KT 3603 9502

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